[pct-l] snow pack between Tuolumne Meadows and Lake Tahoe

[jeffmoorehead1 at cox.net (Jeff Moorehead)]

Grreg,
 Thanks much-- that was extremely informative--at least I have pretty much answered my questions about what makes the Sierra passable (I know I couldn't get by with instep crampons with a 15 ft vertical wall of ice). And your forecasting methods are the best I've heard. Thanks for the reply!
 Jeff
  This is what I have done, i.e., look at the current year March 1st and April 1st snow pack information for several high elevation survey sites and then look for several similar years with close data at those dates and see what the variation is on the "zero" day snow.  Then I make a prediction based on averages.  I also compare the March 1st data to the May 1st data (for which all years have historical information) to look for late Spring snow storms that reverse earlier snow pack conditions.  This happens about 20% of the time, irrespective of the earlier conditions.   It isn't perfect as the historical information for say Upper Tyndall Creek (11,400' and just south of Forester Pass; THE critical pass) or Bighorn Plateau (11,350') only goes back to 1970.