[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

[pct-l] Fwd: Snow Level



Tom Reynolds writes:
Upper Tyndall Creek snow pillow will hit zero in two weeks at its present
rate of melt [4.5 inches per week] or three weeks if the predicted cooling
front is prolonged. More importantly the Kern crested May 5. Per Greg's
model it will be ok to leave Kennedy Meadows on June first or slightly
before. Tom's model would recommend June 5. 

The difference in the two models is not the snow pack. Rather it is the
amount of difficulty one is willing to endure. Usually these two models are
two weeks apart. However, in this case Greg's primary index, the snow pillow
just before Forrester Pass, actually lags behind several indices [overall
snow melt, river crest date] that Tom uses.

The bottom line is that Tom feels that while Forrester may be a bitch from
his perspective, the rest of the Southern Sierra is ready. 

Your mileage may vary.

Tom
Greg