[pct-l] Whippet/iceaxe

[CMountainDave at aol.com (CMountainDave@aol.com)]

In a message dated 2/20/04 10:04:38 PM, shawmanford@yahoo.com writes:

<< As it turned out, no one I knew of or heard about on the 2003 hike needed 
their ice axe in the area they carried it for which was the High Sierra. 
Ironically, the only time anyone in the group I fell in with ever needed an ice axe 
was in the Goat Rocks Wilderness in Washington State on a ice sheet that 
covered the trail for about 100 feet across a very steep hill side. A fall there 
would lead to long slide into a very cold lake. I was the only one with an ice 
axe of any kind and it was very dull from digging cat holes. Still, we all got 
across.
 >>

After reading Deep Survival, I recognize your argument as simple 
rationalization. Just because Fido crossed a busy street 10 times and made it doesn't mean 
he will make it on his eleventh attempt. He might think so because he has 
never experienced failure, but it simply a mental illusion.
 
   The real question is what are you going to do IF you slip and fall into 
that cold lake. What is your reaction going to be: are you going to in deep 
shock because you assumed your plan AND backup plan would work but didn't, leaving 
you clueless about what to do? Or are you going to be able to improvise and 
get yourself out of a fix because you EXPECTED the possibility of failure and 
therefore were mentally prepared to deal with the situation.

   Equipment isn't the answer. It decreases the odds of failure, but at the 
same time psychs you up to enter places where angels fear to tread. Equipment 
is simply an enabler to disaster. It's how you REACT when an inherently 
hazardous situation turns to disaster that counts. When it comes to odds, everything 
devised to overcome them is simply rationalization. "No matter how careful you 
are, sooner or later you are going to throw snake eyes"

   If you cross enough steep snow without an ice ax sooner or later you will 
slip and fall. If you cross enough steep snow with an ice ax, sooner or later 
you will slip and fall, but statistics show that you will, on average, LESS 
times than someone with an ice ax.
   Wanna bet?
   David C