[pct-l] Re: Snow Predictitions (was good starting date?)

[pct at DelNorteResort.Com (PCT Mailing List)]

Greg,

First and foremost, I have NO method for predicting 2 or 3 months in advance what the
snowpack conditions in the Sierras will be and neither do you. That's the WHOLE POINT.

Reading the journals is to expose potential hikers to the snow conditions in the Sierra that
others have experienced, NOT for prediction purposes. If I'm arguing against the possibility
of accurate predictions, why would I suggest reading a journal to that end?

"If you start from Kennedy Meadows on June 15th, you'll probably encounter little snow."
Plus or minus 2 weeks error, what do think my chances of being wrong are? Extremely, slim.

If you guess the 2nd week in June and Reynolds guesses the 3rd week in June, there's
a REAL good chance that one of you is gonna be right. This is just so glaringly obvious.

There's no genius on your part and no benefit to anyone listening to state on March 1st, 
"According to my calculations, start from KM between June 1 and June 6."

Can you predict consistently and accurately what the weather will be 2-3 months out? 
No, you can't and neither can meteorologists. Hydrology is dependent on the weather, no?

The best that anyone could achieve is a probability via statiscal methods based on very limited
historical (50 years at best for accurate data) data. ie, "80% chance of 6" snowpack at Upper 
Tyndall on June 1st." And this says nothing of the accuracy of the method, it only reflects the 
results based on the data.

C'mon Greg, you have a science background. Why can't earthquakes be predicted? The answer
is simple, too many ughknown variables. The same applies here. 

Scott Parks




  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Bighummel@aol.com 
  To: stillroaming@earthlink.net ; pct-l@mailman.backcountry.net 
  Sent: Friday, October 10, 2003 3:52 PM
  Subject: Re: Snow Predictitions (was good starting date?)


  My predictions are based upon sound historical data.  They indicate when the high country in the Southern Sierra is RELATIVELY free from snow.  Thus my prediction is based upon when I think the snow level at 11,400 feet elevation just south of Forester Pass will have no snow.  This is not an indication of how much snow is at 12,000 feet or 13,200 feet, however, it is an indication of the state of meltoff.   IF you are accustomed to traveling in light snow and ice conditions then at that point you can likely deal with the receding snow and ice at those higher elevations.  Also, if you leave Kennedy Meadows on the date that the snow melts to zero at Upper Tyndall Creek, it will take you several days to reach Forrester Pass, by which time the snow at the higher elevations will have likely melted more.  Once the meltoff starts in late May, early June it generally accelerates very quickly.  

  Scott, if you have a better indicator other than just referring prospective thru-hikers to last years journals (which will not have ANY reference useful to predicting when the snow NEXT year will melt off, by the way) then I'd just love to hear it.  Also, get your facts right.  My criteria have always been as described in my post and I won the bet in 2002.  Ask Tom, if you don't believe me.  He paid me with a six pack of beer.

  Also, all of you who might be thinking of taking my advice, please recognize that it is a PREDICTION with many caveats and as such should be taken with a grain of salt and a whole lot of self reliance.  The facts of when it will meltoff are not available anywhere ahead in time.  Thus your prediction may be just as good as mine.  Arm yourself with knowledge and take a stab at it.

  Greg Hummel
  "Strider"