[pct-l] Questions on the Amazing Hike

[hshires at jps.net (henry shires)]

Excellent analysis John. Thanks for really digging in to the numbers.  I'd
also like to publicly thank "old gal" Marge for forwarding some questions
from me, John and others to Rudy, Zeb's mom.  Just so you all know, her
response to specific mileage/day queries was

"I'm not the person to count for individual days/mileage."

with a promise to forward questions to her apparently very busy son.

I'm reminded a bit of the cartoon that shows a physics professor and
graduate student engaged in a calculation that spans many blackboards.  On
the last blackboard, the equations fade to illegibility followed by a
circled answer and the phrase "and then a miracle occurred..."  The
professor, pondering the meaning, says, "I don't think I quite follow this
last step..."

Henry


> Date: Tue, 23 Sep 2003 22:12:31 -0700
> From: "John Vonhof" <johnvonhof@comcast.net>
> Subject: [pct-l] Questions on the Amazing Hike
> To: <marge@prothman.org>, <pct-l@backcountry.net>
> Message-ID: <012501c3825a$74ee2ee0$6501a8c0@davisnet.com>
> Content-Type: text/plain;    charset="iso-8859-1"
> 
> Marge wrote,
> 
>>> Rudy [Brad's mom] wrote:
>>> Brad flew to CA on Tuesday, May 20th.  Friends drove him to Campo on
>>> Wednesday, May 21st which is when he started his hike. He did take "0" days
>>> including the three at Yosemite when his sister and I visited him.
>>> My update from July 29 is what is misleading.  It states "The call came in
>>> on Saturday, at 9:40 EST. . ."  Brad arrived in Manning Park on Saturday,
>>> July 26th - I didn't have the chance to send out the update until 3 days
>>> later (July 29th).
> 
> Do you get the impression this is on the up and up? I am having a hard time
> believing this story. The dates add up to 70 days but his mom now says he got
> to Manning on the 26th. That's 67 days total, without subtracting the 0 days!
> His mom further says he took three 0 days in Yosemite. That changes his hiking
> days to 64 days. How many 0 days did he take total? If his friends drove him
> to Campo on the 21st, he could not have gotten in a full day.
> 
> His journal states "Saturday, June 8th  Zeb spent his second night in
> Tehachapi, CA. Days on the trail: 18,  he's had 2 - "0" days (days off-trail
> resting). 555 miles are now done - that averages 35 miles everyday for 16
> days.... That means Zeb has 2103 miles of PCT still to go." In fact May 21 to
> June 8 is 19 days, not 18. So he did 555 miles in 19 of his 67 days. Yes, that
> means he has 2103 miles to do in the remaining 48 days!
> 
> Later we read, "June 25, 2003. Zeb is now at the 1,200 mile mark of the 2,658
> mile trail."  Ok, here the numbers are getting interesting. After 36 days, he
> has covered 1200 miles and has 1458 to go on the remaining 31 days. Do for the
> first 36 days he averaged 33 miles per day and the last 31 he now has to
> average 47 miles per day. But somewhere in here has to be factored in the
> hitch hike trip back to Yosemite and then the bus ride back to Redding, and
> the side trip to Portland.
> 
> Then we read, "On Tuesday, July 8th we got a very excited call from Zeb.  He
> was setting up camp on the California/Oregon border.  By Wednesday he made it
> to Ashland, Oregon.  Approximately 1730 miles done, only 928 miles to go." The
> 14 days from Yosemite to the CA/OR border comes to 530 miles in 14 days at an
> average of 38 miles per day, but does not factor in the 0 days spend going
> back to Yosemite and then returning to the trail near Redding. Now he has 14
> days to get to Manning Park, through both Oregon and Washington. That's 928
> miles in 14 days where he now has to average 66 miles per day! And that not
> factoring in the 0 day to get to Portland and back.
> 
> 
> 
> Next we read, "July 13, 2003. I just got off the phone with Zeb.  He's arrived
> in Timberline Oregon, and was able to take a bus into Portland....  Zeb
> expects to cross into Washington State in about 2-3 days which means he is now
> averaging 50 mile days."  So he went from the CA/OR border on July 8th to
> Timberline on the 11th in less than four days! Isn't that close to 400 miles?
> In under four days! Brian Robinson did all of Oregon in 12 days, 22 hours. Are
> we to believe that Brad did it in six to seven days?
> 
> 
> 
> So it ended on "July 29, 2003. The call came in on Saturday [the 26th] at 9:40
> PM EST.  Zeb did what had looked like an impossibility back in May. 2650 miles
> in 67 days.  He broke the existing record of hiking the PCT by a whopping 17
> days.  His average was 39.67 miles, which in my book is real close to 40 miles
> a day - and that doesn't count the miles he had to walk to get into towns,
> water sources and just about everything else."
> 
> 
> His last stretch was from Timberline on the 13th to Manning on the 26th.
> That's 13 days to get through the rest or Oregon and all of Washington. Brian
> Robinson did Washington in 15 days.
> 
> Many on this list have done the trail and know better than I the time it takes
> to do the daily hiking, town stops, and gear management. From what I've read,
> he had no support. Serious ultramarthoners typically do the JMT in 6 days.
> Some on this list have stated they have done 40 miles days. But, have they
> done 64 of those in a row, while doing all the other stuff that a thru-hike
> takes. Have any of the other thru hikers written to say they saw him and were
> passed by him? I would hope that the PCTA does not accept this claim with some
> serious study of photos, receipt stubs, phone records, sightings by other
> hikers and trail angels, etc. If he truly did what he says, he is indeed world
> class and I will commend him for his accomplishment.
> 
> I hope you pardon my doubts. In the ultrarunning world there has been an
> ongoing debate over the claims of Robert Garside. His claims have been the
> subject of much controversy. Most ultrarunners have dismissed him as a fraud.
> I am not calling Brad's claims false or fraudulent, but they need to be
> confirmed before everyone accepts them at face value.
> 
> Here is the link to some information on Garside.
> http://www.ultramarathonworld.com/uw_archive/garside.html
>>> Robert Garside left London on Dec. 7, 1996, intent on becoming known as the
>>> "first" person to run solo around the world. He received sustained attention
>>> throughout from the mainstream media. During his travels, Garside claimed to
>>> have accomplished feats that rival the greatest known ultramarathon runners
>>> of all time. For example, he would rank second to Yiannis Kouros in the
>>> classic 24-hour ultramarathon test, and rival the world's best performances
>>> for 6 days (another classic long distance endurance test) if his online
>>> diaries and releases from Central America and Mexico were to be believed.
> 
> John Vonhof
> johnvonhof@comcast.net
> Fixing Your Feet: Prevention and Treatment for Athletes