[pct-l] ice ax

[dude@xxxxxxxxxxx (dude)]

--
John - where are you getting your information?  The wording in your
response leads me to believe that you have knowledge of what the
passes are actually like at present.  Am I misunderstanding?  Have
you actually been to these passes already this year?

As far as saying uncategorically that hikers will not need ice axes
in late june or early july, I would suggest something slighly less
certain.  I would say that it really depends on how risk tolerant or
risk averse eachhiker is.

I would also suggest that it is almost impossible to say in april
with any degree of certainty whether or not an ice axe will be needed
in june/july because the sierras are well-known to recieve late
spring (ans even early summer) snow storms.  Its highly unlikely, but
it is possible that the sierras could get 10 feet of new snow in
may.  As I mentioned in my earlier post, I was snowed on in August of
1998 on the JMT going over Pinchot pass.

>From what I have read about the El Nino of 2002-2003 (from a link
posted to this list, i believe), this year's El Nino is significantly
different that the last major El Nino (which happened to be 1997-
1998).  In 1997-98, the body of warm water in teh pacific was much
more concentrated and clearly defines, which resuled in the
predictacle dumpage of precipitation on the west coast.  This year's
El nino is much less defined and more spread out and has resulted in
less predicatble and more unusual weather patterns.  Therefore, it is
entirely concievable that we could get late season snow.  Then again,
we may have an early melt off.  That's the point - no one really
knows.

HTH anyone trying to plan their hike.

peace,
dude


> --
> [ Picked text/plain from multipart/alternative ]
> As you've heard, the snowpack in the Sierras is significantly less
> than normal this year.   Unless you're in the first group crossing
> Forester, Glen or Mather passes in late May or early June, you
> won't need an ice ax to chop away steps.  Until the third week in
> June an ice ax would be mentally useful for possible self-arrest
> in crossing the col on the south side of Forester, and descending
> the south sides of Glen and Mather--but, there should already be a
> well-defined path across the snowfields.   Pinchot, Muir and
> Seldon passes are walk-ups and present no problems other than
> postholing.   The only spot that could linger into late June is an
> early morning descent of the north side of Mather.   There's a
> 70-foot stretch of trail that is snow covered and could be icy.
> If you're starting your trip in late June or early July, you'll
> have no problems.
>
> john randall
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