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[pct-l] RE: Guess Fest - Snow Pack Prediction for 2003



Dear Inquiring Minds,

In February you cannot predict anything. You CAN look at this year versus a
low [1977-Srtider's year], High [1982], last year and average. I believe
that I posted that info--somewhat below average in southern and central
sections.

You can look at the Tyndall Creen snow sensor [TND] and see the snow depth
this year [34] versus last year [44] but February data doesnt mean anything.
2002 was a VERY fast melt.

You cannot really predict anything till late April or early May when the
snow starts melting. That's when the "Forecast of Runnoff Volumes for the
Sierra" reports start. I have to look for it every year. Typically I can't
make a SWAG until after Memorial Day weekend when I cross Kaiser Pass and
head to Mono Hot Springs [near VVR]. I ask the locals and check my guess
versus their guess. They KNOW how much snow is in the mountains.

Check back June 1, 2003

I would not attempt to traverse Forrester pass 2 weeks after the snow sensor
shows zero. Do you think I'm nuts man? Have you SEEN that avalanch shoot?
One false step and its a 1000 foot ride to......

However, somehow, by the grace of God, thruhikers make it up and over
Forrester. In talking with thruhikers, those who try Forrester a week BEFORE
my date find it very difficult but seem to make it. They also almost, but
not quite, get swept down Evolution Creek to oblivion and the almost, but
not quite, committ suicide on the four mile post-hole north of Muir. Almost
all say they left KM too early. {Thruhikers ALWAYS start out hiking too many
miles per day, ALWAYS leave KM too soon, and ALWAYS take stupid risks in
snow country]

A week later [my date] everything is much easier and two weeks later the
snow problems are trivial......or so they report.

Your mileage may vary. Your guess, your risk. Hike your own hike.

Tom



-----Original Message-----
From: Scott Parks [mailto:stillroaming@lycos.com]
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 10:44 PM
To: pct-l@backcountry.net
Cc: reynolds@iLAN.com
Subject: RE: Guess Fest - Snow Pack Prediction for 2003



Uh oh. Inquiring minds are experiencing some progress here. :)

Let's summarize and correct me if I'm wrong:

1. Leave Kennedy Meadows 7-10 days after Tyndall Creek Pillow clears.
2. Delay, if temp is not average.
3. Delay if central sierra snow is high.
4. Delay if northern sierra snow is high.

Assuming my understanding is correct, questions:
+ Assuming 1 is clear and 2,3,4 are normal, will trail conditions
  suit all of us or just you?
+ In February, how do you determine 3 and 4?
+ Where do you find long term run-off forecasting?
+ In February, how do you apply this to forecasting trail conditions
  in June?

Still curious,
Scott Parks

---
Home   : http://stillroaming.tripod.com
Art    : http://stillroaming.tripod.com/art
Hiking : http://stillroaming.tripod.com/pct

On Sat, 8 Feb 2003 21:28:14
 Reynolds, WT wrote:
>Dear Inquiring minds,
>
>I have described the data that I use, specifically the snow pillow readings
>at various locations along the PCT. Actually, there aren't very many of
them
>so any inquiring mind could figure this out. However I will save said
>inquiring minds the trouble. They are, from south to north: Tyndall Creek,
>Charlotte Lake, Bishop Pass, Agnew Pass and Tuolumne Meadows. I have ben
>checking these snow sensors since 1998 and I relate when they clear [are
>free of snow]with previous years. In GENERAL, I propose leaving Kennedy
>Meadows about 7-10 days after the pillow at Tyndall Creek clears with the
>plan of ascending Forrester  Pass 14 days after the snow pillow clears.
>
>However, the "Forecast of Runnoff Volumes for the Sierra" predicts the 5
day
>runoff based on the predicted weather. If the runnoff is greater than
normal
>for the period then crossing Evolution Creek will be a bitch but Forrester
>will be easy. Colder weather is the reverse. In any event, either colder or
>warmer predicted weather will cause a delay in my date.
>
>Finally, there is no point leaving KM early if the central Sierra snow is
>high. If the northern sensors are showing above normal I delay my date.
>
>A simple rule of thumb is that with a normal year the date to leave KM is
>June 15.
>
>Tom



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