[pct-l] RE: Guess Fest - Snow Pack Prediction for 2003

[stillroaming@xxxxxxxxx (Scott Parks)]

Uh oh. Inquiring minds are experiencing some progress here. :)

Let's summarize and correct me if I'm wrong:

1. Leave Kennedy Meadows 7-10 days after Tyndall Creek Pillow clears.
2. Delay, if temp is not average.
3. Delay if central sierra snow is high.
4. Delay if northern sierra snow is high.

Assuming my understanding is correct, questions:
+ Assuming 1 is clear and 2,3,4 are normal, will trail conditions
  suit all of us or just you?
+ In February, how do you determine 3 and 4?
+ Where do you find long term run-off forecasting?
+ In February, how do you apply this to forecasting trail conditions
  in June?

Still curious,
Scott Parks

---
Home   : http://stillroaming.tripod.com
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On Sat, 8 Feb 2003 21:28:14
 Reynolds, WT wrote:
>Dear Inquiring minds,
>
>I have described the data that I use, specifically the snow pillow readings
>at various locations along the PCT. Actually, there aren't very many of them
>so any inquiring mind could figure this out. However I will save said
>inquiring minds the trouble. They are, from south to north: Tyndall Creek,
>Charlotte Lake, Bishop Pass, Agnew Pass and Tuolumne Meadows. I have ben
>checking these snow sensors since 1998 and I relate when they clear [are
>free of snow]with previous years. In GENERAL, I propose leaving Kennedy
>Meadows about 7-10 days after the pillow at Tyndall Creek clears with the
>plan of ascending Forrester  Pass 14 days after the snow pillow clears.
>
>However, the "Forecast of Runnoff Volumes for the Sierra" predicts the 5 day
>runoff based on the predicted weather. If the runnoff is greater than normal
>for the period then crossing Evolution Creek will be a bitch but Forrester
>will be easy. Colder weather is the reverse. In any event, either colder or
>warmer predicted weather will cause a delay in my date.
>
>Finally, there is no point leaving KM early if the central Sierra snow is
>high. If the northern sensors are showing above normal I delay my date.
>
>A simple rule of thumb is that with a normal year the date to leave KM is
>June 15.
>
>Tom



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