[pct-l] RE: Guess Fest - Snow Pack Prediction for 2003

[reynolds@xxxxxxxx (Reynolds, WT)]

Dear Inquiring minds,

I have described the data that I use, specifically the snow pillow readings
at various locations along the PCT. Actually, there aren't very many of them
so any inquiring mind could figure this out. However I will save said
inquiring minds the trouble. They are, from south to north: Tyndall Creek,
Charlotte Lake, Bishop Pass, Agnew Pass and Tuolumne Meadows. I have ben
checking these snow sensors since 1998 and I relate when they clear [are
free of snow]with previous years. In GENERAL, I propose leaving Kennedy
Meadows about 7-10 days after the pillow at Tyndall Creek clears with the
plan of ascending Forrester  Pass 14 days after the snow pillow clears.

However, the "Forecast of Runnoff Volumes for the Sierra" predicts the 5 day
runoff based on the predicted weather. If the runnoff is greater than normal
for the period then crossing Evolution Creek will be a bitch but Forrester
will be easy. Colder weather is the reverse. In any event, either colder or
warmer predicted weather will cause a delay in my date.

Finally, there is no point leaving KM early if the central Sierra snow is
high. If the northern sensors are showing above normal I delay my date.

A simple rule of thumb is that with a normal year the date to leave KM is
June 15.

Tom

-----Original Message-----
From: Scott Parks [mailto:stillroaming@lycos.com]
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 8:57 PM
To: pct-l@backcountry.net
Cc: reynolds@iLAN.com
Subject: Re: Guess Fest - Snow Pack Prediction for 2003



Inquiring minds want to know.

What is the criteria for snow pack prediction? That is,
what snow depth, at what location, on what date? Is that
what we're talking about? Or are we just talking ;)

If you *really* want to make this challenging and useful,
how about a prediction for the northern, central and southern
Sierra at a specific location for date and depth.

Since 'passability' is relative from hiker to hiker, specifics
would be very interesting.

Scott Parks

---
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