[pct-l] Here it is: The First Snow Pack Prediction for 2003

[reynolds@xxxxxxxx (Reynolds, WT)]

2003 data shows:
Northern California: Like 2002, slightly above average
Central California: Like 2002, slightly below average
Southern California: Like 2002, slightly below average

The above data means NOTHING.

First, between now and April 1, the traditional date for snowpack
measurement, it may snow a lot or a little. Predictions for this year are a
LOT but it hasn't happened yet.

Second, the snow melt is more important than the snow pack. Cool weather in
April and May can delay the melt making June a month of raging torrents and
mile-high cornices OR warm weather in April-May can wash away even the
biggest snow accumulation.

Note: Yours truely, Tom Reynolds is by far the most accurate predictor of
Sierra snow relying on a carefully selected set of scientific criteria to
produce his annual scientific wild-ass guess [SWAG] of the best time to
leave Kennedy Meadow. I combine data from the snow pillows at various
locations along the PCT with a government report that forecasts runnoff
volomes for the rivers that drain the California Sierra.

My competitor, Greg "strider" Hummel, on the other hand, relies only on his
1977 thruhike experience [I have none] and a single snow sensor located in
the Tyndll Creek drainage just South of Forrester Pass.

However, a second, and FAR more important, difference between my prediction
and Greg's is that Greg likes to play in the snow and finds that climbing
snowey mountains with an ice axe is a fun thing to do. I, on the other hand,
hate snow. Further, I believe that the time gained by an earlier start from
Kennedy Meadows is, in the long run, lost because of the extra energy spent
ascending mile-high cornices or the huge blisters grown due to the
constantly soggy feet created by extended snow slogging. In contrast, in
1977 [a low snow year] Greg climbed many a cornice and repeatedly had a foot
of snow dumped on him. All in all 1977 was a grand time for him.

Greg and I however, agree on one thing. Use our snow predictions at your own
risk. Your mileage may vary. Traversing the Sierra in June is a serious
undertaking. Always carry an Ice Axe....always....always.

There is a major disagreement about crampons. Most thruhikers don't take
them. However the 1998 journal of Jonathan Breem [no longer on the PTCA
page] clearly details why they are valuable. Jonathan was able to get up
early in the morning and simply walk on the top of a frozen crust of snow to
scale the passes. Other hikers traversing the Sierra at about the same time
without crampons had to WAIT until the snow softened before embarking. The
result was something only Greg and possibly Monte would enjoy -- postholing.
My personal advice to thruhikers is DON'T.....but if you must..... carry a
pair of walking crampons such as the Grivel Grippers [6 points, no front
points]. Scale the passes in the morning when you are fresh and spend the
afternoon low and out of snow. The extra pound will save you bloddy legs
from postholing and half-dollar sized blisters from wet feet [not that you
won't get blisters, just not as uugly. True you will miss that wonderful
four-mile post hole experience that occurs north of Muir Pass that Greg and
Monte love so much and will not have the battle scars on your legs from it
to prove you are a thruhiker. It's your choice. Hike your own hike.

Tom