[pct-l] SnowMelt Conditions

[reynolds@iLAN.com (Reynolds, WT)]

Updated Forcast 2002 like 2001

Rational: 
April 1 is the traditional day to evaluate the Sierra Nevada snowpack. This
is because historically, snow depth is at it's highest point on April 1.

It is easiest to describe this year in terms of last year [2001]. In 2001,
in the Sierra south of Yosemite, snow accumulation reached its highest
point, about 75% of April 1 normal, then melted almost immediately to just
over 50% of normal on April 1. Late snow upped the accumulation to 60/70
percent in late April but a warm spring saw almost all snow melted before
June 1.

In 2001 snow depth as of March 15 2002 was equivelent to snow depth March 15
2001. However, the March 15-April 1 snow melt of 2001 did not occur in 2002.
The result is that there is 10-15% more snow on the ground this year than
there was last year on the same date.

My short term prediction is, based on near recorded warm temperatures
forecasted in the Southern Sierra, a snowmelt in the first 7 days of April
that will bring the snowpack to about 55% of April 1 normal, or equivilent
to the snowpack of April 7, 2001.