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[pct-l] Annual Sierra Passability Prediction
Here is my bold, presumptuous, annual earliest Sierra passibility prediction
based upon historical snow survey data of the Bighorn Plateau (11,400'
elevation, just south of Forrester Pass) survey station from present back to
1972. This prediction assumes that you do not mind walking in some snow and
expect to need an ice axe and in-step or full crampons to cross Forrester and
possibly Mather Passes.
This year is currently looking like a slightly below normal year for snow
pack in the Sierras. As such, an early melt-off will enable an early entry
into the Sierras, IMHO. My guess: Barring any late, significant snow storms
(highly possible) May 15th to 22nd will be the earliest date to enter the
Sierras without snow shoes or cross-country skis.
This suggests that if you are an aggressive, well experienced, fast paced
hiker, you could start your hike at the border around early to mid April in
order to time your arrival at the southern foot of the Sierras to coincide
with the snow level retreating to a level of passibility (less than a foot
over the majority of the trail).
Please take this prediction with a heavy dose of salt and note all of my
numerous caveats.
YMMV, HYOH, IMHO, DWTWYW (do with this what you will),
Greg "Strider" Hummel