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[pct-l] Annual Sierra Passability Prediction



Here is my bold, presumptuous, annual earliest Sierra passibility prediction 
based upon historical snow survey data of the Bighorn Plateau (11,400' 
elevation, just south of Forrester Pass) survey station from present back to 
1972.  This prediction assumes that you do not mind walking in some snow and 
expect to need an ice axe and in-step or full crampons to cross Forrester and 
possibly Mather Passes.

This year is currently looking like a slightly below normal year for snow 
pack in the Sierras.  As such, an early melt-off will enable an early entry 
into the Sierras, IMHO.  My guess:  Barring any late, significant snow storms 
(highly possible) May 15th to 22nd will be the earliest date to enter the 
Sierras without snow shoes or cross-country skis.  

This suggests that if you are an aggressive, well experienced, fast paced 
hiker, you could start your hike at the border around early to mid April in 
order to time your arrival at the southern foot of the Sierras to coincide 
with the snow level retreating to a level of passibility (less than a foot 
over the majority of the trail).  

Please take this prediction with a heavy dose of salt and note all of my 
numerous caveats.  

YMMV, HYOH, IMHO, DWTWYW (do with this what you will),

Greg "Strider" Hummel