[pct-l] Pct-L Digest, Vol 156, Issue 1

[william jennings]

Ray Jardine recommended June 15 for Kennedy Meadows and this about 32 years ago.

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Subject: Pct-L Digest, Vol 156, Issue 1

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Today's Topics:

   1. Re: Trip schedule planner? (Town Food)


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Message: 1
Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2022 18:48:11 -0800
From: Town Food <pctl at marcusschwartz.com>
To: pct-l at backcountry.net
Subject: Re: [pct-l] Trip schedule planner?
Message-ID: <f65d7737-fc68-bf37-47f1-3ca1368fe132 at marcusschwartz.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed

Hi,

Sorry for the long delay here.

So far as I'm aware, it's generally not possible to predict a start date
based on weather until about April, when winter snowstorms are likely to
be mostly over.  The closest thing to a calculator that I know of, at
least when I hiked in 2016, was with this formula:

(Day on which you should reach Kennedy Meadows) = June 1st + ((Snow
depth in inches on April 1st at the Bighorn Plateau snow sensor) / 3.5)

The snow depth in question can be looked up at the "California Data
Exchange Center" from the California Water department.

For example, since I hiked in 2016, I looked up the April measurement
from this address:
http://cdec4gov.water.ca.gov/dynamicapp/snowQuery?s=BGH&end=2016-05

Which showed 45.0 inches.  So:

Day to reach Kennedy Meadows = June 1st + (45.0 / 3.5 = 12.8 days) =
June 14th

I expected to hike 20 miles per day, and Kennedy Meadows is about 700
miles in, so:

Days to get to Kennedy Meadows = 700 / 20 = 35 days

So my start date was:

June 14th - 35 days = May 10th

To put it all into one formula:

X = Start Date
Y = Miles you can hike per day
Z = Snow depth at Bighorn Plateau on April 1st

X = June 1st + (Z / 3.5) - (700 / Y)

If you looked at the above link, you may have noticed that the page is
kind of broken -- it seems the Bighorn Plateau sensor is no longer
listed in their index, and doesn't display results for recent years.
I'm guessing it's not maintained anymore.

I don't know why Bighorn Plateau was used for that formula, but maybe
the Upper Tyndall Creek sensor, which is nearby, would be a suitable
substitute.  Its measurements for early April this past year can be
found here:

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/dynamicapp/QueryDaily?s=UTY&end=2022-04-15&span=30days

Next year, your friends should be able to adjust that URL by changing
"2022" to "2023".

Note that you want to look at snow depth (called "SNOW DP" in the table
from the link), not at snow water content or adjusted content.

So far as online planners go, there is https://pctplanner.com/, but I
don't think it tries to take snow pack into account.  It's more for
planning resupplies.  (Which I don't really recommend in general, since
for many people, appetites and preferences will change a great deal on
trail, and options to pick up mailed resupplies are often poor on the
PCT -- for example, post offices that are only open 4 days a week, for a
few hours a day.)

Ignoring calculators completely, 2016 was just about exactly an average
year, snow-wise.  And the May 10th start date worked well for me, and I
hiked 20 mile days, like your friends are planning to (in fact, my
average pace for the whole PCT worked out to 19.97 miles/day).  So if
they want to do preliminary planning under the assumption that this
winter will be "average", a May 10th start date has my stamp of approval.

Note, though, that I had a lot of experience with terrain and weather
very similar to what the Southern California PCT is like in May/June, so
I was confident that 20 miles/day would be reasonable for me.  If
they're not used to desert backpacking, it might be wise to assume lower
mileage (or to find a desert to train in).

  -=Town Food

On 10/26/22 13:26, Glen Van Peski wrote:
> I?m trying to help out some Slovenian friends, and they?re trying to figure out a start date to apply for permits.  Is there an online planner to help them with this process?  Also, is there any ?consensus?, based on this winter, as to when an optimal start time would be, assuming these guys can do 20+ mile days?
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End of Pct-L Digest, Vol 156, Issue 1
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