[pct-l] Weather watch now, Class of 17

Thu Nov 3 01:56:34 CDT 2016

Hi Gang,

Trouble is back in town,...the girls are dancing in the streets,..the 
guys are gnashing

their teeth.

Yes Rob,  in the Sierra, at high elevation it can snow at any time of 
the year.

Like I said, I have hiked the Sierra since 1968 and been been snowed on 
in the summer,

at high elevations, on more than one occasion.

As a matter of fact, my first hiking experience in the Sierra was in the 
1964-65 winter

during 6 weeks of USMC cold weather mountain warfare training at the 
USMC cold

weather training camp at Pickle Meadows, near Bridgeport, in the Sierra.

Man, it was cold,....we even crawled into our sleeping bags with our 
boots on.

Let me tell you, it was not fun.....we almost froze to death.

The USMC does not put much weight on comfort...."Survive Baby...Just 
Survive"

that's all that matters.

There is good logic behind that...you don't get troops ready for the 
misery of war

by keeping them comfortable.

The more misery they get exposed to the better they will be able to cope 
with the

miseries of war when war comes.

There is a USMC saying...."The more you sweat in peace, the less you 
bleed in war."

The above, to some extend, probably also applies to recreational hiking.

The harder you train and push yourself and the more you expose yourself 
to the

conditions you will encounter on the trail, the more prepared you will 
be to handle

the challenges on the trail.

Below is a condensed snow history for Mammoth Mountain, in the heart of 
the Sierra,

that will give you an idea of the amount of total snow Mammoth may get 
during a

winter season and the amount of snow Mammoth may get, in the Summer, 
prior to

October.

TOTAL SNOW FOR WINTER SEASON:   2004-05...570", 2005-06...578", 
2008-09...470"

2009-10...557", 2010-11...668", 2012-13...308", 2013-14...238", 
2014-15...176",

2015-16...361".

PRE-OCTOBER SNOW FOR WINTER SEASON:   1969...22", 1970...60"...1971...22"

1972...4", 1973...45", 1974...15", 1975...27", 1976...4", 1977...4", 
1979...23" 1980...4"

1982...13", 1983...19", 1984...6", 1986...5", 1991...17", 1996...5", 
1998...5", 2002...3"

2003...6", 2007...10.

As you can see, snow in the Sierra is hard to predict...just remember, 
in the Sierra, at

high elevation, you can get snowed on any time of the year

  JMT Reinhold

  .................................................... Rob wrote:

The first time I remember being snowed on was the 9th of August, just 
south of Red

Peak Pass in southern Yosemite National Park.

It only snowed a few inches, but it was enough to make the point that it can
snow any time of year.

Rob
..................................

JMT Reinhold wrote:

Ned,
You are absolutely correct.
Does the window close in October?....of course not.
But the potential for snow, especially light snow, increases at high
elevations after September and if a hiker is anticipating snow free
conditions and is not prepared for snow it can make his journey less
than pleasant if he encounters snow and I like to make my backpacking
adventures pleasant.

It may rain at 8,000 feet and be freezing rain or snow at 12,000 feet.
I have hiked the Sierra extensively since 1968 and have encountered
snow in the middle of summer on more than one occasion.

About 10 years ago on one of my JMT hikes, between Guitar Lake and
Whitney, my home made tenant collapsed on me in the middle of the night
under the weight of wet snow in late August or early September.
It snowed all night and needless to say I was not a happy camper.
It rained at lower elevations but snowed at the high elevation where
I camped that night.

I learned my lesson that night, about 10 years ago, that is why I like
to get through the Sierra before October.

Of course, like you say, the Sierra window is open past September but
the hiker needs to be aware and prepared for the potential of freezing
rain and snow at high elevations.

JMT Reinhold
Your happy trail companion
.....................................

Ned wrote:
Thanks, Reinhold, for all your support and encouragement over the years!

I stretch the time frame to mid-November because most of the storms that hit
the Sierra early, September thru November, are usually less than a foot in
quantity and melt off within a day or so of the sun coming out. This is not
based on any statistics, but rather my own on-trail experience during those
months. However, you'll see below, that I have revised my recommended time
frames. [Dittli, would you concur?]

Let's look at the SoBo thru hike time window respective of powder snow
"bookends,"

At the Pacific Northwest end...

Light Winter:  consider a mid-June start
Average Winter:  consider a July 4th start (based on the recommendations by
locals)
Heavy Winter:  consider an August 1st start

At the Sierra end...
(again, these dates are based on living in the Sierra for the past 30 years.
A statistician can refine this...)

Early Winter:  ski areas open on Thanksgiving
Average Winter:  ski areas open for Christmas
Late Winter:  ski areas make snow for Christmas and pray for snow in January

People need to realize that storms track three ways on the coast,
- hit to the north, Portland and Seattle, and miss the Sierra
- hit both the north and south, tracking down the coast on its way east
- hit the south and miss the north.

Therefore, one end is usually hit harder than the other. So, it becomes a
gamble what you'll get when doing your planning months ahead of a hike!
Start dates SoBo have to be flexible and hikers have to be patient for safe
trail conditions. The longer you wait to start, the more consolidated will
be the snow and with wisdom, the safer you may be.

So, let's put together the 9 possibilities:
(Premise: 1 month for Washington, 1 month for Oregon, 1 month for NorCal,
and then they are in the Sierra at Donner)

1. PNW post-average winter to Sierra average winter start:
- July 4th to November 1st  (5 months of trail time)
- Meaning:  hikers start on steep, slippery, consolidated snow and go
through the Sierra under a moderate threat of light snow.

2. PNW post-average winter to Sierra late winter start:
- July 4th to mid-November (4.5 months)
- Meaning: hikers start on steep, slippery, consolidated snow and go through
the Sierra under a light-moderate threat of light snow.

3. PNW post-average winter to Sierra early winter start:
- July 4th to mid-October (3.5 months)
- Meaning: hikers start on steep, slippery, consolidated snow and go through
the Sierra under a moderate threat of light/heavy snow.

4. PNW post-light winter to Sierra late winter start:
- Mid-June to mid-November (5 months)
- Meaning: hikers will start on a thinner snowpack of steep, slippery snow
and go through the Sierra under a mild threat of light snow.

5 & 6

7. PNW post-heavy winter to Sierra early winter start:
- August 1st to mid-October (2.5 months)
- Meaning: hikers will start on steep, slippery consolidated snow and have a
moderate threat of snow in the northern Sierra and a pretty good chance of
deeper powder snow in the higher Sierra that may stop them in their tracks.

8 & 9

I'm not going to extrapolate all of them. You can see where I'm going. SoBo
hikers will have to do their best with the hiking season they get, being
aware of what can happen weather-wise in fall season Sierra.

Ned Tibbits, Director
Mountain Education, Inc.
ned at mountaineducation.org
<http://mailman.backcountry.net/mailman/listinfo/pct-l>

......................................................

Listen to what Ned is saying gang,....Ned knows what he is talking about.

He is the expert when it comes to hiking in snow.

The only thing I would like to point out is that I always prefer and

recommend getting through the Sierra by the end of September.

The Sierra, because of its elevation, is a different kind of a beast.

It can snow in the Sierra at any time of the year, even in the middle

of summer...I have gotten snowed on in the Sierra in the middle of

the summer on more than one occasion.

However, after September, the chance of new snow in the Sierra

increases drastically, changes the whole equation, and you better be

prepared for serious snow hiking.

Scott Williamson, with 14 PCT thru-hikes (16 counting section hikes),

including 2 PCT yo-yo thru-hikes, and 3 prior PCT speed records, the

undeniable, unquestionable, indisputable "KING" of the PCT had to

bail out and abandon 2 other yo-yo attempts, in prior years, because

he got back  to the Sierra to late, after it already started snowing, on

his way back to the Mexican border.

Like I said, the equation changes dramatically ones it starts snowing

in the Sierra....that is why I prefer to get through the Sierra before

October.

JMT Reinhold

............................................................

Class of '17!

I want you to pay attention to the weather this September-November because,
for the majority of you, these are the months in which you'll be ending your
thru hikes next year. Watch, now, to be ready, then.

Doesn't matter whether you are planning on going NoBo or SoBo, watch how the
weather comes in this fall and how the high country along the PCT
transitions to winter. What you see this year, you may experience next year.
(Of course, this is not always true, but be aware, nonetheless, to help make
your planning decisions).

The points are,
- NoBo: Get to Manning by mid-September and
- SoBo: Get through the Sierra by mid-November

to avoid cold, wet, and maybe deep powder snow keeping you from your dream
of completing a thru hike of the Pacific Crest Trail.

The premise is this,
- Fall and winter weather bring cold, lots of damp, and maybe freezing rain
or powder snow. The human body does not do well in this environment without
help and that needs to be anticipated by having an awareness of it. If you
spend too much time while NoBo along the trail in the south and find
yourself way behind schedule, these conditions can and have stopped many a
thru hiker just shy of their goal after working towards it for months.

If you want a fun and successful thru hike, among many things, know what
you're up against and prepare for them, know your self and why you're there,
practice the skills required to overcome expected adversity and challenge
(personal/internal and environmental/external), and take lots of
progressively longer hikes, ending with one that is as exposed as the PCT
and long enough to require a resupply (3 weeks).

You will be hearing more advice from me as your start dates get nearer, as I
want all of you to have the fun and safe life-changing wilderness journeys
you hope for, but those come with planning grounded in reality! I will be
talking more about the "Realities of the Trail" over the next few months.

Ned Tibbits, Director
Mountain Education, Inc.

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