[pct-l] 2015 and SOBO

Tue Feb 17 12:18:12 CST 2015

Barry's advice is very sound and I would agree whole-heartedly.

I would simply add that a true SoBo, starting at Harts to M78, then heading 
south, with the "normal" snowpack at higher elevations and latitudes and the 
steep terrain there should not start until July 4th or later to allow the 
snow to melt off the trailtread. Any slip-and-fall in that terrain will send 
you sliding into a tree or over a cliff and the resultant injuries would 
certainly ruin your day and hike!

Wait and watch what happens in March and April and adjust your start date 
and location according to trail conditions and your skill/experience level.

Ned Tibbits, Director
Mountain Education, Inc.
www.mountaineducation.org
ned at mountaineducation.org

Mission:
"To minimize wilderness accidents, injury, and illness in order to maximize 
wilderness enjoyment, safety, and personal growth, all through experiential 
education and risk awareness training."
-----Original Message----- 
From: Barry Teschlog
Sent: Monday, February 16, 2015 12:18 PM
To: PCT L.
Subject: [pct-l] 2015 and SOBO

In hearing some of those numbers about permits and dates and the like, it's 
clearly going to be a record breaking year for numbers in So Cal - the herd 
is going to be epic (I just looked - 1494 from now through the end of May, 
679 in the two weeks before KO Sunday).  Some individuals are probably 
considering a SOBO hike to avoid the masses.  While the superficial 
indications are that this may be a year to do so, upon further 
investigation, it might not be such a great idea or might take a bit of 
additional flexibility or planning.

The last really "good" year to SOBO was probably 2005 when the Cascades of 
Washington had a very low snow pack.  I was a NOBO section hiker that year, 
going from White Pass / Highway 12 to Snoqualmie Pass / I-90 in the first 
few days of July.  I recall passing dozens of straight up SOBO's and 
flip-floppers (as 2005 also had a very high Sierra snow pack).  Given where 
I was, the SOBO's and flippers that were starting south from Hart's Pass, 
would have done so roughly 12-17 or so days prior.

First off, what are the superficial indications that 2015 might be a good 
year to SOBO:

1)  The ski areas in Washington are getting crushed by the lack of snow. 
Snoqualmie Pass (I-90) ski area is shut down until further notice, until 
they get more snow.  Snotel sensors in the Snoqualmie Pass area are at epic 
low values, indicating ~1-2 feet of snow cover as of this date.

2)  Stevens Pass (US 2) Snotel sensors are, on this date, nearly as low as 
the 2005 values on the same date.  2005 was a banner year to SOBO.

3)  Western Washington has had a very warm winter.  Not that it's been a dry 
winter, as rain totals are not super low, but certainly a warm one - see the 
above ski areas.

The anticipated sheer numbers in So Cal and other factors (So Cal drought 
for example) might make a person who wants to avoid the mass herd in So Cal 
knee jerk to a SOBO hike.  Fair enough......but be sure to look closely at 
all the information before deciding, or make your plans according to the 
actual conditions.  It's not so simple.......

Check out the Harts Pass and Rainy Pass Snotel sensors.  For perspective, 
Hart's Pass is ~30 miles from the border and is the northernmost drivable 
access point on the PCT.  Rainy Pass is where the PCT crosses the North 
Cascades Highway, ~31 miles south of Hart's Pass and ~20 miles north of 
Stehekin.  These are at a significantly higher elevation than Stevens Pass 
and the areas around Snoqualmie Pass.

The Harts and Rainy Pass snotel sensors are showing incredibly close to 
normal levels of snow pack for this time of year, in stark contrast to the 
values on this date from 2005 and in stark contrast to those at lower 
elevations or further south.

While it's too soon to hazard a guess at what will happen, prudence 
indicates that a person considering a SOBO this year should plan for at 
least a "normal" progression of snow from this point forward and then the 
subsequent melt off.  "Best case" for a SOBO (although worst from a water 
supply perspective) would be for it to stop snowing at higher elevations and 
for a fast melt.  Worst case for a SOBO-er would be for heavier than normal 
snow going forward and a slow melt off.

Note that typically, the north Cascades don't max out the snow pack until 
early to mid April.  Even in 2005, there were significant accumulations 
after mid February and before mid April, and the areas has also had late 
melt offs in 2011 and 2012.

Given the pretty normal snow at higher elevations at the north end of the 
trail, potential SOBO-ers should consider alternate start points and 
strategies that would avoid the highest, northernmost parts of the trail, at 
least at the start of the SOBO.  Consider getting on at Stevens Pass / 
Highway 2 or Snoqualmie Pass / I-90 in lieu of at Hart's Pass and just go 
south.  Flip back north at an appropriate time to bag those miles (say from 
Ashland, to pick a point with convenient air, rail and bus service to and 
from the Seattle area and that takes a bit of time to hike to, allowing the 
melt to happen).

YMMV.  HYOH.  2 cents.  Free advice being worth what is paid.  Yadda, yadda, 
yadda.....

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