[pct-l] No El Nino this year....Well, maybe yes after all

[Brick Robbins]

http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherforce.com/2014/11/02/el-nino-2014-2015-now-official/

Whether called or not, El Nino’s ENSO readings are showing El Nino has
arrived.  A recent storm system into our region; Pacific Storm
Anthony, showed us here at Southern California Weather Force.com that
El Nino is grabbing a hold of the region.  Halloween storms such as
that are a rare treat, when most storms play inside slider tricks on
us.  El Nino will affect us in November, December, January,  February,
March, and April.

Climate models suggest that the ENSO numbers could go to 1.1 by the
winter.  This would be classified as a Moderate El Nino.

What we are in now is a weak El Nino.  A weak El Nino does tend to
bring some interesting storm systems into the area.  Storms systems
where their parent troughs are far enough west and south on the base
that tornadic storms become likely, along with severe thunderstorms
associated with strong squall-lines along the coldfront.

So El Nino is finally here.  We will have a slightly above average
rainfall season, which bodes well for helping some of the drought
numbers fall.

El Nino Intensity Number Guidance – Current number as of this article
is 0.6 to 0.7 and rising.

Extreme 2.0+
Strong 1.5 to 1.9
Moderate 1.0 to 1.4
Weak 0.5 to 0.9
Neutral – 0.0 – 0.4