[pct-l] Fw: 2014 Snow, Water and Start Date

[Barry Teschlog]

So, here's an update from the mid January post on this same topic.

Another look at the below linked snow chart unfortunately indicates the recent dumping in California hasn't done much for the Sierra snow pack.  


Sierra South is 36% of normal for the date and 32% of the typical April 1 max.
Central is 37% and 33% while north is 20% and 18% respectively.

See the charts at:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/swcchart.action

For those of you who can launch their thru attempts early, this may be the snow year to do so.

Looking at stream flows:

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=ww_current

One can see the quickly diminishing flows in Cali (pick a hydro-graph near the trail in So Cal, and look at the flow history) indicating that the recent rains, while welcome, are at best temporarily increasing stream flows.  Without some sustained rain in So Cal, the seasonal water may be a huge issue this year - consider starting earlier, when it's more likely to still be running AND you'll have, on average, cooler weather as well.
As I said below, there are, IMO, some very good reasons to start earlier this year.


----- Forwarded Message -----
>To: PCT L <pct-l at backcountry.net> 
>Sent: Monday, January 13, 2014 4:32 PM
>Subject: 2014 Snow, Water and Start Date
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>Big caveat up front - there's lots of winter left and who knows, it MAY just start dumping, and keep dumping, and then have a cool spring that slows the melt off, making for something like an average Sierra snow conditions.  Then again, the current low snow / drought pattern could hold.......(the 10 day forecast indicates little to no chance of significant precip at Trukee, Yosemite and Mammoth, by the way).
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>In looking at the link of CA snow
 conditions, its far worse this year than last at least as far as the water situation for California agriculture is concerned (and forest fires, and city water supplies, and.....).  On the other hand, so far it looks excellent for a late March to early April start at
 Campo.
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>http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/swcchart.action
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>For those of you considering a thru hike for 2014, I'd strongly suggest that you make contingency plans to pull your start date forward to the late March or early April time frame IF the current low snow / So Cal drought pattern holds.  Now is the time to do that "what if" contingency plans, not in mid
 March.  If it's another low snow / So Cal
 drought year, there are several good reasons IMO to start in late March to early April, rather than later in April:
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>1)  Look at all the 2013 folks who were nailed by early weather here in Washington.  How many were pushed off the trail at Stevens Pass / The Dinsmores who might have made it to Canada by starting 2 weeks earlier?  I'm sure many were OK with being shut out in the end, but I'm sure there are also many that started at or around the KO, went their best speed up the trail, got nailed by the weather and are / were disappointed to not make it to Canada.  If you can start early with fair conditions, why not do so?  It gives you a
 higher chance to finish before it snows here in Washington. 
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>2)  With the continuing drought in So Cal, if there is any seasonal water, it'll dry up early.  Better to be through the desert before its totally gone, or at least when it's a few weeks cooler that it would be otherwise.  Speaking of temps, a few weeks can make a notable difference on the average temperature.  Using the town of Mojave as a proxy (data from weather dot com) - Average high for May 7th is 78, for the 15th is 80, for the 23rd is 83 and for May 31 is 85.  May 31st is the rough time for a person to get to the Mojave area for a near KO start.  Campo is similar:  April 25 average high is 75, April 18 is 73, April 11 is 71, April 4 is 70.  Starting a couple of weeks earlier will get you several degrees cooler high temp, on average.  Yes, you MAY have to deal with late season storms in the Laguna's, but you'll be prepared for that anyways, with your rain gear and shelter.
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>3)  Remember the Powerhouse fire last year?  Yeah....better to try to be ahead of the sadly inevitable natural forest fires (and the foolish human caused ones) than behind them.  And as a side note, please
 be very careful with
 your stove.  A carelessly kicked over cartridge stove can start a fire the same as an alcohol stove - and PLEASE, do NOT have any campfires anywhere on the trail.
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>4)  The KO filled up super fast last year.  OK, this is not a reason per se to start early, but it really begs the question of "why wait to start so late" because of a party (e.g. the KO in late April) in a year that may have favorable conditions for a far earlier start.  If you're a party type, well, I suppose then go ahead and do the KO and start late, conditions be darned.....on the other hand if your goal is to hike all 2,660 or so miles of the trail in one year, you may as well
 put as many of the odds
 in your favor as you can - starting early when you can is one thing you can do.  Head north in late March to early April and don't look back.  You'll be in the Big Bear to Wrightwood area while the party crowd is stumbling out of the cabins on Sunday morning at the KO.  Note that I'm not anti-KO.  I'm for starting a thru hike when it makes the most sense to the individual given their capability and that years conditions.  If the snow conditions end up being as low as the early levels indicate they could be, then it probably will make sense to start far earlier in April if not late March.  By the time the KO rolls around, you'll have weeks on the trail and will have little to gain by taking the time and hassle to head back to Lk. Morena.
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>5)  Get ahead of the mass of the herd.  You'll certainly still be around other folks - there are enough people doing the trail that you'll see 'em even with an early start, but you'll likely never have to camp with a dozen or so other folks as you might have to if you're in the thick of the herd.  Being in front of the herd, there will be less competition for town or Angel resources in So Cal.
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>6)  You'll have more time for side trips and to take it easy.  OK, this may seem at odds with the "get to Canada before the weather" point made above, but hear me out.  By the time
 I got into Nor Cal,
 and certainly by Ashland, I had a pretty fair idea of when I'd finish - to within a few days.  You will too.  If at that point, if its looking like you'll be done by mid August to the first of September, you'll be able to afford to slow down a bit and spend a few days on extra zeros or side trips.  Getting started 14, 21 or even 28 days before the KO makes it more likely you'll be able to spare a few days for the side trip or to take on trail zero's at the hot springs, etc.
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>YMMV.  IMO.  HYOH.  Yadda, yadda, yadda.......
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