[pct-l] Northbounders

[Ned Tibbits]

Over the years since I've been paying attention to the PCT and the success 
of its thru hikers (let's see, that's about 41 years), what I heard from 
Manning Park's Rangers back in 1972 still holds true: "Pre-season, winter 
storms can start rolling in around mid-September, so make sure you're here 
by then."

As we're hearing from hikers bailing off the trail, "we're so close and yet 
so far!" Don't run so late in the season that you might be stopped dead in 
your tracks by a snow storm. Weather is unpredictable. Don't count on good 
weather allowing you to hike into late September or October. In my mind, at 
least, there's nothing worse to a thru hike than to be forced to quit so 
close to the goal because of something I can't control! I can just hear 
hikers saying, " I've worked for 5 months to get here and with only a week 
to go, I sure don't want to stop now!"

So, consider starting earlier so you can end by mid-September. You're going 
to have snow in the sierra anyway. So you have a little more. Once you get 
used to walking on snow (remember, plan for 1mph over snow and double the 
calories), it's no big deal. You might even have easier creek crossings in 
the sierra because the thaw (typically June) hasn't started yet!

Food for thought...

Snowman



Ned Tibbits, Director
Mountain Education
www.mountaineducation.org
-----Original Message----- 
From: Barry Teschlog
Sent: Monday, September 30, 2013 4:54 PM
To: PCT-L
Subject: [pct-l] Northbounders

As an observation on the weather here in Washington, it IS right about that 
time when the trail "normally" shuts down / becomes impassable at the higher 
elevations as a practical matter.  Hopefully folks still out there will do 
the wise thing and bail to town if they're ill prepared for the foul weather 
conditions.  As Brick notes, if hikers have sufficient budget to wait it out 
in a hotel until there is the predicted break, that may be a viable 
strategy, before a "run for the border".


As a suggestion, future thru's should be planning their schedules, and keep 
moving on trail, such that they'll finish by mid September if at all 
practical.  Feel the schedule pressure - a little is a good thing.  Don't 
dilly dally out there on trail - keep moving north if you can.  Given this 
year's low snow conditions in the Sierra, starting early / earlier than late 
April was entirely practical.


Even with a mid September finish, folks may get caught by weather (like in 
2007 - another low snow in the Sierra year).  Or, you might get lucky and 
have great weather well into October, like 2006 (which paradoxically was a 
high Sierra snow year).

Luck (for those counting on hiking into late September / early October) is a 
poor substitute for a plan that plays the odds in your favor based on 
historical data, and that data says that any time after about mid-September 
and the odds of bad weather in the high country of the North Cascades begin 
increasing rapidly.

Side note:  Snow on the ground at this instant (afternoon, Sept 30) at 
Stevens Pass.  See the WADOT camera at:
http://www.wsdot.com/traffic/passes/stevens/default.aspx
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