[pct-l] The "Lost" effect on our community

[Mike Beaty]

Two observations here:

>From the table that Radar compiled, I see a growth trend in AT usage existed 
long before the publication of Walk in the Woods and it would be just as 
reasonable to speculate that the book's success was in part due to this 
trend and the wider public interest it represents.  We can speculate on the 
effects "Lost" may have on PCT usage, but my hunch is that it is more 
indicative of a wider phenomena.

As for huts, in the 70's I lived in Maine and regularly hiked the AT there. 
The huts in Baxter State Park were lifesavers (from hypothermia) during the 
week long rain events of September and our hiking party would race from one 
hut bivouac to the next through the torrents.  The numerous resident mice 
were fat, bold, and easily dispatched by jacking and bopping them on the 
head with a flashlight (just like little bunny foo foo).  Mike Chapman could 
have feasted at these huts.

Two cents,
Terrapin
Boise

Date: Wed, 6 Jun 2012 16:23:49 -0400
From: Gary Wright <gwtmp01 at mac.com>
Subject: Re: [pct-l] The "Lost" effect on our community
To: David Plotnikoff <david at emeraldlake.com>
Cc: pct-l at backcountry.net
Message-ID: <7BF06718-8AF7-4106-8DCD-367C15257DC7 at mac.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=windows-1252


On Jun 6, 2012, at 1:29 PM, David Plotnikoff wrote:
> Perhaps some of the more seasoned AT veterans can speak to what
> happened back there in the years immediately following Bill Bryson's
> "A Walk In The Woods."

A Walk in the Woods was published in the spring of 1998 so any effect on AT 
hiker counts would have to be in 1999 and subsequent years.  Unfortunately 
that coincides somewhat with the recession of 2000.

The columns in the table below are year, reported AT completions, estimated 
starts, percent change from previous year.  The ATC has reported that over 
the last few years completion rates have been 26%, 30%, 28%, 28%, 27%, and 
29%.  I just assumed a 28% completion rate when I generated the table below.

I used the completion list reported by the ATC at 
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/about-the-trail/2000-milers/2000-?

I also marked the years in which the US was in recession during the spring 
of that year (according to Wikipedia).

Not sure what this tells us but there does seem to be an increase in 
thru-hikers in the years *before* we are 'officially' in a recession.

Radar

1970 10   35   0.0%
1971 23   82 134.3%
1972 37 132 61.0%
1973 93 332 151.5%
1974 78 278 -16.3%  recession
1975 95 339 21.9%  recession
1976 105 375 10.6%
1977 80 285 -24.0%
1978 108 385 35.1%
1979 131 467 21.3%
1980 163 582 24.6%  recession
1981 139 496 -14.8%
1982 132 471 -5.0%  recession
1983 121 432 -8.3%
1984 103 367 -15.0%
1985 123 439 19.6%
1986 116 414 -5.7%
1987 148 528 27.5%
1988 159 567   7.4%
1989 207 739 30.3%
1990 234 835 13.0%
1991 215 767 -8.1% recession
1992 233 832   8.5%
1993 237 846   1.7%
1994 247 882   4.3%
1995 318 1135 28.7%
1996 410 1464 29.0%
1997 423 1510   3.1%
1998 409 1460 -3.3% Walk In The Woods Published
1999 561 2003 37.2%
2000 635 2267 13.2%
2001 626 2235 -1.4% recession
2002 596 2128 -4.8%
2003 608 2171   2.0%
2004 586 2092 -3.6%
2005 551 1967 -6.0%
2006 488 1742 -11.4%
2007 515 1839   5.6%
2008 558 1992   8.3% recession
2009 607 2167   8.8% recession
2010 628 2242   3.5%
2011 645 2303   2.7%

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