[pct-l] The "Lost" effect on our community

[Gary Wright]

On Jun 6, 2012, at 1:29 PM, David Plotnikoff wrote:
> Perhaps some of the more seasoned AT veterans can speak to what 
> happened back there in the years immediately following Bill Bryson's 
> "A Walk In The Woods."

A Walk in the Woods was published in the spring of 1998 so any effect on AT hiker counts would have to be in 1999 and subsequent years.  Unfortunately that coincides somewhat with the recession of 2000.

The columns in the table below are year, reported AT completions, estimated starts, percent change from previous year.  The ATC has reported that over the last few years completion rates have been 26%, 30%, 28%, 28%, 27%, and 29%.  I just assumed a 28% completion rate when I generated the table below.

I used the completion list reported by the ATC at http://www.appalachiantrail.org/about-the-trail/2000-milers/2000-…

I also marked the years in which the US was in recession during the spring of that year (according to Wikipedia).

Not sure what this tells us but there does seem to be an increase in thru-hikers in the years *before* we are 'officially' in a recession.

Radar

1970	 10	  35	  0.0%
1971	 23	  82	134.3%
1972	 37	 132	 61.0%
1973	 93	 332	151.5%
1974	 78	 278	-16.3%  recession
1975	 95	 339	 21.9%  recession
1976	105	 375	 10.6%
1977	 80	 285	-24.0%
1978	108	 385	 35.1%
1979	131	 467	 21.3%
1980	163	 582	 24.6%  recession
1981	139	 496	-14.8%
1982	132	 471	 -5.0%  recession
1983	121	 432	 -8.3%
1984	103	 367	-15.0%
1985	123	 439	 19.6%
1986	116	 414	 -5.7%
1987	148	 528	 27.5%
1988	159	 567	  7.4%
1989	207	 739	 30.3%
1990	234	 835	 13.0%
1991	215	 767	 -8.1% recession
1992	233	 832	  8.5%
1993	237	 846	  1.7%
1994	247	 882	  4.3%
1995	318	1135	 28.7%
1996	410	1464	 29.0%
1997	423	1510	  3.1%
1998	409	1460	 -3.3% Walk In The Woods Published
1999	561	2003	 37.2%
2000	635	2267	 13.2%
2001	626	2235	 -1.4% recession
2002	596	2128	 -4.8%
2003	608	2171	  2.0%
2004	586	2092	 -3.6%
2005	551	1967	 -6.0%
2006	488	1742	-11.4%
2007	515	1839	  5.6%
2008	558	1992	  8.3% recession
2009	607	2167	  8.8% recession
2010	628	2242	  3.5%
2011	645	2303	  2.7%