[pct-l] A plan for detouring around the Sierras

[Donna "L-Rod" Saufley]

One of the more significant problems for the hikers this year are the opening dates of normal resupply depots.  Right now current forecasts show:

MUIR TRAIL RANCH		**UNKNOWN**
VERMILLION VALLEY RESORT	2ND WEEK JUNE
REDS MEADOW			JUNE 24
TUOLUMNE MEADOW		JULY 4

These dates present something of a problem for the nobos here currently or in the past few weeks who planned to resupply at these locations.  Any updated forecasts for openings are much appreciated.

L-Rod


-----Original Message-----
>From: CHUCK CHELIN <steeleye at wildblue.net>
>Sent: May 23, 2011 6:54 AM
>To: sabra985 <sabra985 at gmail.com>
>Cc: pct-l <pct-l at backcountry.net>
>Subject: Re: [pct-l] A plan for detouring around the Sierras
>
>Good morning, Evenstar,
>
>Without knowing exactly why you consider  – or are willing to resort to –
>skipping around the Sierras it’s hard to make observations, but I have to
>guess the high reported Sierra snowpack is the reason.  Why else would
>someone willingly bypass one of the more scenic sections of the PCT?
>
>Historically, the extent of seasonal snowpack along the PCT is a mixed bag
>as can be seen by examining the May charts from:
>http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnow.pl
>
>Note that years’99 and ’11 had high snowpack on substantially the entire
>PCT.
>
>Similarly, years ’01 and ’07 had low snowpack the entire way.
>
>Years ’97 and ’08 were high in the Pacific NW and low in most of California.
>These would have been good years for typical NoBo hikes because most of the
>NW snowpack would have been mostly down by the time a hiker arrived.
>
>Snowpack in ’98 and’05 was low in the Pacific NW and high in most of
>California.  These years would have been candidates for skipping around the
>Sierras if a hiker were snow-adverse, or for a SoBo hike.  See the Chris
>Bailey article below for comments from a ’98 team that pushed through the
>Sierras in spite of the snowpack.
>
>This ’11 season will be a problem for snow-adverse hikers.  While most of N.
>California, Oregon, and Washington are at lower elevation compared to the
>Sierras, their being increasingly further north pushes the melt season back
>on the calendar -- meaning that June in the north will look a lot like May
>in the Sierras, etc.
>
>This year in Oregon seems much like ’99 when I encountered significant
>snowpack around Hood, Jefferson, and Three Sisters in late August.  For
>example, on the average Hood gets about 400” of total seasonal snowfall, but
>this year the total – so far – is 722”.
>http://www.timberlinelodge.com/conditions/
>
><http://www.timberlinelodge.com/conditions/>
>
>Steel-Eye
>
>Hiking the Pct since before it was the PCT – 1965
>
>http://www.trailjournals.com/steel-eye
>
>http://www.trailjournals.com/SteelEye09
>
>============================================================
>
>*"Impassable" is a State of Mind*
>
>By Chris Bailey* *
>
>*1998 ranked among the three snowiest years on record in the High Sierra in
>the last 25 years. In this article, thru-hikers Chris Bailey and Jenelle
>Wilhelm share some of their experiences from the trail.*
>
>It is no longer news that 1998 was a big snow year on the Pacific Crest
>Trail. For many ALDHA-West members, it is no longer news that all that snow
>had a disruptive effect on ‘98’s north-bound thru-hikers. The Gazette’s
>editor has asked us to provide a little of the flavor of what it was like to
>thru-hike in a big snow year.
>
>First, some background. Jenelle and I set out from Campo on April 26, 1998
>and finished our hike at Manning Park on September 22, 1998. We became the 4
>th and 5th hikers to have made it straight through from Mexico. Four others
>finished in late October, for a total of nine who left the Mexican border
>and hiked straight through to the Canadian border in 1998. Josh Dhasalear,
>Jason Lakey and Jonathan Breen finished ahead of us, and Jennifer Pittman,
>Mark Dixon, Jim Horan, and Graham Johnson behind us.
>
>During the winter, we had been following the snow reports from the Sierras
>and had become increasingly concerned, Poring over the data via the
>internet, we’d have conversations like, "what the hell is snow water
>content," and "well, 180% doesn’t seem so bad: maybe it will melt."
>Obviously, we were in denial. Adding to our paranoia was Ray Jardine’s
>published advice that if the snowpack was exceeding 200% of normal (which it
>was in most of the High Sierra during April), we’d be better off to postpone
>our hike for a year, or failing that, "that you not start until late May,
>that you prepare to hike many miles of snowpack in southern and central
>California, and that beyond the High Sierra you press ahead with a will in
>order to finish before the early-winter snowstorms hit the North Cascades."
>However, we decided to stick with our departure date: we were too anxious to
>wait until June and go southbound, plus the idea of hiking home (we live
>near Stevens Pass) was very appealing. Again, we were in denial.
>
>So we read again and again Ray’s advice, which was prefaced with a warning
>to the effect (I cut those pages out and lost them somewhere) that hiking in
>heavy snow years was really winter mountaineering and beyond the scope of
>his book. We just didn’t see how bad it could be.
>
>Our first tangible evidence came on our flight from Seattle to San Diego on
>April 25th. Our flight path took us directly over the High Sierra. We could
>clearly make out Mono Lake and we’re pretty sure we picked out Mt. Whitney.
>That was where we were going to be hiking in a few short weeks? We took
>turns with our noses pressed to the window saying things like, "damn,
>there’s a lot of snow down there," and "yeah, but most of it will melt
>during the six weeks it’ll take us to get there, right?" Our state of denial
>rose to new heights.*
>*
>
>*The Journey Begins
>*
>
>**At 9:20 a.m. on April 26th we set out, excited, nervous, anxious, but
>confident. There was no snow at Campo – how bad could it really be? In fact,
>there wasn’t a single patch of snow in the Laguna Mountains, which gave us
>hope. But there were register entries from a couple of weeks before
>describing how some PCTers had arrived on snowshoes.
>
>It wasn’t until we climbed over the shoulder of Combs Peak (map B3) that we
>got our first really good look at the San Jacintos. Gulp! Damn, there was a
>lot of snow there. Somehow we almost convinced ourselves that we were really
>looking at San Gorgonio, which we’d skirt around anyhow. But no, that was
>San Jacinto and we’d be there in about 2-3 days. Yeah, but we don’t go over
>the top, we traverse around a couple thousand feet below. How bad could it
>be? This is starting to sound familiar, huh?
>
>Unseasonable storms ran us off the Desert Divide into Idyllwild prematurely
>and after waiting for 3 snowy, rainy days in Idyllwild we made our way back
>to our bail-off point and continued north. My (Chris) journal entries for
>May 8 - 10:
>
>*"Finally left Idyllwild today, getting a ride back to Cedar Springs Trail.
>Jenelle and I spent last night at the State Park Hiker/Biker site in the
>rain, thunder and hail.  The weather still didn't look great but we were
>really itching to get hiking after three nights in town.  Jason and Johanna
>also squeezed into the van for the ride back.  All day as we continued north
>along the Desert Divide, we remained in the clouds.  We would occasionally
>catch glimpses down toward Palm Springs.  North of Apache Peak we hit our
>first steep snow and broke out the ice axes.  They were definitely required
>as one slip would have sent us sliding over rocks, cliffs in some cases, and
>into trees."*
>
>*"The majority of the trail today was snow-free but the snowy stretches were
>tricky. We camped with Kojac and Jason and Johanna near the head of Andreas
>Canyon. Our stove sprang a leak in the hose (after only eight days of use)
>and turned into a fireball. So much for hot food and melting snow for
>water."*
>
>*May 9, 1998*
>
>*"We spent all day today in the snow. Just after leaving our campsite this
>morning, we were in deep snow after one treacherous traverse on solid ice
>(refrozen over night). Tracks went everywhere, but we didn't trust any of
>them because one set were Brian's, who was lost, and another set was Brian
>and Martina's, who were lost and another was Lynn and Mike's, who were lost,
>and another set belonged to a ranger, who was lost. We eventually made our
>way to the vicinity of Deer Springs, but we didn't know exactly where we
>were. We ended up camping on top of 10 feet of snow (with no stove). It was
>a long, hellish day during which we would find the trail only about 10
>percent of the time and hiked hard all day to cover fewer than ten miles."*
>
>*May 10, 1998*
>
>*"After waiting for the sun to soften the snow enough to get decent
>footing,  we made our way across a really sketchy side-hill traverse before
>finally finding the trail again just below the crest of Fuller Ridge. We
>were so happy to be on it again, but it soon disappeared under 15 feet of
>snow on the east side of the ridge. We picked up Brian and Brian and
>Martina's tracks and followed them to Black Mountain Road below Fuller Ridge
>campsite. Finally out of the snow, we found a great campsite and made a
>small fire so we could have a hot meal for the first time in three days."*
>
>We continued to have poor weather on and off, all the way to Kennedy
>Meadows, including an 18-inch snowstorm in the San Bernardino mountains near
>Mission Creek Trail Camp on May 13th and several other days of really lousy
>weather. All, I’m told, remnants of the El Nino cycle, which didn’t really
>release its grip on Southern California until mid-June.
>
>*The High Sierra*
>
>We arrived at Kennedy Meadows on June 10th and spent four nights there
>waiting for the weather to improve. By this time, we had decided we were
>going to make a foray into the Sierra to see what it was like. The vast
>majority of other thru-hikers had decided by now to skip to somewhere in
>northern California or flip-flop to Canada and the hand-wringing, nervous
>speculation, and endless debates about how to proceed had consumed a lot of
>energy over the past couple of weeks. It had grown to be a nauseating topic.
>
>The weather pattern had settled down on the 13th, and on the 14th, with our
>new hiking partner, Randy (a section hiker who had started at Tehachapi
>Pass), we headed up the trail. We were carrying six days worth of food and
>our plan was to go at least as far as Trail Pass and then depending on how
>we were doing, we’d continue to at least Cottonwood Pass and, best case,
>continue to Crabtree Meadows and head over Trail Crest to resupply (and
>decide whether to proceed) in Lone Pine via Whitney Portal. Within the first
>half-day, we met two nay-sayers who said we didn’t stand a chance.
>
>We knew of two hikers who had left Kennedy Meadows heading north ahead of
>us. One said he was only going as far as Olancha Pass, where he would head
>for Highway 395 and begin his flip-flop. The other hiker, we knew, was an
>experienced nordic skier and had skis with him. He was a very strong hiker
>and we felt certain he was out there ahead of us, which was (somewhat
>irrationally) a comforting feeling. He was about a week ahead of us at this
>point. We learned about two weeks later that he had only traveled about two
>days (to Trail Pass or Cottonwood Pass, I think) before he wisely decided
>that traveling solo was not a good idea. He later told us he didn’t think
>anyone would come along to travel with, so he decided to flip-flop.
>
>Before setting out from Kennedy Meadows, we had contacted a backcountry
>ranger at the Lone Pine ranger station. He informed us that while there was
>100% coverage in the high country, the snow was "bomber," i.e., in good
>condition for travel. This (and the avalanche danger) was our major concern.
>We knew we would struggle (post-hole) badly if the snow was unconsolidated.
>The ranger’s information turned out to be quite accurate. While the PCTA
>(and many, many others) were telling hikers that the Sierras were still
>impassable, we found the hiking strenuous and slow, but quite doable. Here
>is an excerpt from my (Chris) journals describing the conditions from
>Kennedy Meadows to Kearsarge Pass:
>
>*"We encountered out first patchy snow at around 9,000 feet, on June 14th,
>the day we left Kennedy Meadows. The next morning, traversing around Olancha
>Peak, we walked on patchy to mostly continuous snow for a few hours (at
>9-10,000 feet) and had more of the same north of Ash Meadow that afternoon.
>The following day, we found the same snowpack composition as the day before
>as we approached Trail Pass and Cottonwood Pass, with solid snow on north
>and east exposures above 9,000 feet, especially in heavy timber. This
>pattern continued all the way past Crabtree Meadows to just south of Bighorn
>Plateau, where the snowpack became pervasive. In all this distance the snow
>was of a uniform nature: consolidated enough to hike bare-booted, with only
>occasional post-holing around "warming" objects like rocks and logs. We
>encountered no sun-cupping yet either, until the north side of Forester Pass
>in the Bubbs Creek drainage. One nice thing about this southern section was
>that the southern and western exposures below 10,000’ were often melted out
>almost completely, so many of our climbs were on bare switchbacks, while our
>descents (since we’re headed north) were on snow. One disadvantage of
>spring-like snow is that, especially in timber, the snow falls and drifts to
>irregular depths, leaving us to climb and descend over miles of one to six
>foot hummocks – an exhausting proposition."*
>
>*"Forester Pass, our first major obstacle and the highest point on the PCT,
>had worried us for a couple of days. When we first glimpsed it from a
>distance, it made us cringe. We hadn’t seen any of the advice posted [on our
>website’s guest book] about Forester and had forgotten about Jardine’s
>recommendation of a possible alternate pass. When we got close enough to see
>the six to eight foot cornice at the top, the steep couloir, the avalanche
>debris, and the snow-plastered switchbacks blasted out of the steep rock
>face, we decided we weren’t going to risk it, though we weren’t sure how to
>proceed. As we ate lunch and stared at this problem, the pass just a short
>distance to the east of Forester (and west of Junction Peak), started to
>seem like an option, though we only had the topo map to indicate what the
>north side might be like. The pass had a bare talus slope for the last 100
>feet and no cornice and didn’t seem unbearably steep, so we decided to give
>it a whirl. The snow was almost perfect for us to bare-boot up (our only
>option as we don't have crampons with us and have found little real need for
>them) protecting ourselves from a fall by self-belaying with our ice-axes.
>The north side of the pass was steep, but soft and easy to descend."*
>
>*"One word here about avalanches. The three of us decided the risks
>associated with doing Forester and the rest of the passes in the afternoons
>was reasonably low, based on the conditions we saw and how the snowpack felt
>to us. There was evidence of recent slides, but mostly of snow coming off
>very steep rock or pieces of cornices breaking off – both situations we
>rarely had to traverse under. It also appeared that the majority of the
>heavily loaded areas had already slid. We saw no evidence of snowfields such
>as the ones we were regularly traversing triggering, even when they were hit
>by slides from above. Finally, the slide depositions we saw were very
>shallow and the one time we actually saw a slide, it was moving about four
>m.p.h."*
>
>*"The snow in the vicinity north of Forester was pretty rotten in the late
>afternoon, the worst post-holing through this whole section. Otherwise, the
>snow conditions the rest of the way to Red’s Meadow became slightly better
>consolidated, vastly more sun-cupped (in meadows and open stands of timber)
>and deeper north of Silver Pass (we found snow almost all the way down to
>Red’s Meadow Resort)."*
>
>On that first leg from Kennedy Meadows we managed to exceed our expectations
>and were able to make it all the way to the Kearsarge Pass cut-off, where we
>headed out to the Onion Valley trailhead to resupply in Lone Pine (where we
>had sent our drift box). Unfortunately, the Onion Valley road had just
>opened and had very little traffic on it. We ended up walking about 8 (of
>15) miles down the road before catching a ride the rest of the way into
>Independence.
>
>After a couple of days rest in Lone Pine, we decided to continue north along
>the PCT rather than flip-flopping, which we had left open as an option. We
>made an 8-day leg to Red’s Meadow, where we hitched out to Mammoth Lakes for
>more rest and resupply. Continuing with my (Chris) journal entries for the
>passes north of Kearsarge:
>
> *"As for the rest of the passes: Glen Pass was steep on both sides, but we
>took a line to the right, following some skiers' steps and topped out
>through a band of rocks. It was a pretty easy pass, really, as it wasn’t
>very exposed. The north side had some pretty rotten snow and a few cliffs to
>descend around."*
>
>*"Pinchot was quite easy as well. We took a line to the right making first
>tracks. The back side was no problem."*
>
>*"Mather Pass was terrifying. The whole pass was corniced, except for one
>tiny spot above the pass on the left through the rocks. We traversed steeply
>up the left side, partially exposed to cornices above, crawled through one
>rock band, climbed steeply up very rotten snow to the next rock band and
>continued on mixed rock and snow, following (roughly) a skier’s steps over
>steep rock – quite a challenge! At one point while leading, I sank in to
>rotten snow with both feet, up to my waist. I was very off-balance (tipping
>backward on a very steep section) and couldn’t get a purchase on anything
>with my ice axe (the snow was sno-cone consistency about one foot deep on
>top of rock). My feet were stuck and I had to get Jenelle to dig them out
>from behind."*
>
>*"Muir, Selden and Silver Passes were very easy and straightforward. In all,
>the snow has been hard work and has made route finding slow and tedious at
>times. We saw the trail only briefly, except in the valley bottoms. Patience
>is the key."*
>
>*"We’ve heard there’ve been a few deaths in whitewater accidents from the
>high run-off so maybe a few words about stream-crossings are in order. We’ve
>actually had little difficulty with them. A little scouting for a good spot
>or log goes a long way. The one that sounded the scariest from the guidebook
>description, Silver Pass Lake Creek ("a hair-raising stream-crossing at the
>head of a fatally high cascade") was mostly just noisy, but not difficult."*
>
>The snowy trail continued in earnest after Red’s Meadow and the snow level
>actually dropped the further north we went in the Sierras. While there was
>little snow on the ground in Tuolumne Meadows, there was still plenty in the
>Yosemite backcountry and all the way to Sonora Pass. Our worst river fords
>came between Tuolumne Meadows and Falls Creek, where we had several very
>deep (chest high) crossings. A couple of the guys ahead of and behind us
>inadvertently swam on one or two of the crossings. Thankfully, we were able
>to scout for logs on a few of these. A few times we bushwhacked on the
>opposite banks from the trail for a long way, crossing miles upstream where
>it was safer. By this time we had become comfortable with not having actual
>tread to follow. We had very little tread for most of the High Sierra.
>
>Our last long stretch of snow wasn’t until shortly before Belden (map M10)
>at about 6800 feet, though we encountered drifts and snowfields on and off
>all the way through the Marble Mountain Wilderness in northern California.
>
>Despite all the mental stress and hard work, the Sierras in ’98 were
>indescribably beautiful, vast and awe-inspiring. The physical hardships, the
>exhaustion, and the frustrations of constant route-finding, were rewarded by
>solitude, by views that few thru-hikers ever see, and by the reassuring
>knowledge that we were still heading north to Canada. We wouldn’t have
>traded the experience for anything, and would suggest that future
>thru-hikers (with adequate skills) at least consider taking the PCT on its
>own terms, even when the conditions are difficult. Not that there’s any
>"right," "better," or "best" way to hike the trail, but there is perhaps a
>little value in continuity and accepting the challenges of the trail as you
>find them.
>======================================================
>
>On Sun, May 22, 2011 at 10:45 PM, sabra985 <sabra985 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Due to a number of factors, I've decided to detour around the Sierras. I
>> know this is sacrilegious to some, but there are factors both within and
>> beyond my control that make this the most sensible option for my hike. The
>> mountains will be there, and it means that I get to ENJOY the remaining
>> 1500
>> miles of my hike this year without stressing about being able to get home
>> on
>> time AND I get to come back next summer. How lucky am I?!?
>>
>> For those who might be facing a similar scenario in their own hikes, here's
>> some information that might be useful for travel planning:
>>
>> 1) From Walker Pass, get to Bakersfield (it's rumored that if you hitch
>> towards Lake Isabella, practically everyone is heading into Bakersfield
>> anyway, since that's the next big city on 178)
>> 2) Take Bakersfield Amtrak to Redding (the RABA stop). The train leaves
>> 4x/day. www.amtrak.com
>> 3) The Redding Area Bus Authority has two buses, Monday thru Friday, which
>> run express out to Burney. www.rabaride.com
>> 4) Hitch from Burney back to the trail.
>>
>> Schedule-wise, it looks like it makes sense to plan to stay overnight
>> somewhere in Bakersfield (and get cleaned up, haha). Be on the 7:15 am
>> Amtrak, you arrive in Redding at 4 pm, then catch the 5:45 pm bus to Burney
>> and maybe the guy (or gal) sitting next to you on the bus will give you a
>> ride to the trail when you arrive in Burney at 7:10 p.m. Hope that helps!
>>
>> ~Evenstar
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