[pct-l] Two Hikers Rescued on San Jacinto

[Eric Lee]

Scott wrote:
>
Choosing an artificial start date a year in advance and calling it "Annual
Day Zero" as the ADZ does without knowledge of future trail conditions IS
irresponsible.
>

It's clear that the date of ADZPCTKO is correlated with the largest number
of hikers starting their thru-hikes, but it's not clear which fact causes
the other.  A start date of the "end of April" was traditional wisdom before
ADZPCTKO was invented, and the date of ADZPCTKO was chosen to correspond to
the most commonly-chosen start dates.

Snow in the California mountains is only one major factor that goes into
picking a start date.  Other major factors include avoiding desert heat, how
fast you have to hike to make it to Canada before winter, and whatever
external constraints a person might have (work, school, etc.).  Slipping
your start date later due to heavy snow adversely affects the "avoid heat"
and "finish before winter" goals.  Sure, some people will decide that's a
good tradeoff, and that's fine, but they'll probably make that decision
regardless of when ADZPCTKO happens to be.

For example, here's a quote from Allen Downs written on 2/20/1999, shortly
after I joined pct-l and before the first ADZPCTKO was held.  He was
planning a 1999 thru-hike and wrote:

" After reading Ray's book, my plan was to start in early May to avoid heavy
snow, but a friend with much more experience that I have has convinced me
that the desert heat may also be a problem, and an earlier start is
appropriate.  Assuming reports indicate normal or less than normal snow in
the southern mountains, I now plan to start on April 17th.  This gives me 2
additional weeks allowing less miles per day, or less stress if I do have to
wait at some point for snow to clear."

This is the same calculus that hikers do today - deal with snow, avoid heat,
start slow, and beat winter.  There's only a two-to-three week window where
all the variables are reasonably balanced for most people, regardless of the
year.  ADZPCTKO doesn't change the math and I would hope that anyone
attempting a thru-hike has done enough research to know what he or she ought
to weigh when picking a start date.  We're all adults.  Prospective
thru-hikers should listen to the folks advocating early starts, and the
folks advocating late starts, then make their decision and live with the
consequences.

Oh, and by the way, the two rescued hikers who were on San Jacinto on 4/27
clearly didn't choose their start date to correspond to ADZPCTKO, so . . .
why are we discussing this again?

Eric