[pct-l] PCT thru timing for 2012

Tue Jul 12 19:52:15 CDT 2011

Ok, Scott, lets go in deeper...

Preface:

We only asked that our thoughts on this subject be considered by next year's 
class of thru hikers. Of course topics can be overlooked which need to be 
considered.

1. Every year we hear of hikers that do get stopped by early season storms. 
I would imagine that others in our hiking community may have this 
documented. We are only reiterating what the Park Rangers in Canada have 
told us about when the storms usually arrive and their recommendation that 
all hikers get across the border by "mid-September." We do not question 
their validity or authority on this matter only accept it since they are 
there and know best because of it. I would sure be saddened to hike toward 
my dream of Canada only to be unable to reach or attain it because of an 
early-season snow storm.
As far as a "selling point," I stated that we don't care if people take our 
Courses, only go see what it's like up there right now for themselves and 
consider the idea.
As far as having "no clue," after 37 years of sierra wilderness skills 
instruction, we certainly have at least that.

2. In Southern California in April, being past the March date I stated when 
the snow begins to consolidate because of the length of sunlight in the day 
and the usual increase in ambient temperature, the snow on the mountains you 
mentioned is consolidating and becoming more "spring-like" and harder 
throughout. Yes, storms can still come in and bring powder conditions, but 
"winter," unconsolidated snow is not usually present in April and the powder 
doesn't last. We had such storms hit us this year and last in May north of 
Kennedy Meadows and they did not deposit much nor did it last long (maybe a 
day or two since the ambient temps at those times were very warm).
As far as "handily ignored this," I thought it was common knowledge, but 
then I guess there are many who think there is fresh, powder snow in 
abundance on the mountains of Southern California in April. Mountain 
Education is not without recent experience in this as we just last year 
taught a snow skills course on Mt. San Jacinto the end of April.

3. As mentioned above, snow storms can and do hit the west coast in April 
and May, some bringing rain and some bringing snow. We have camped through 
numerous storms that brought one or the other in May at elevations above 
10,000 north of KM, as mentioned above. They deposited little and presented 
no deterrent to our progress.
As far as "ignored this," you must be assuming that my comments were 
premeditated and colored to make my "selling point." Storms at this time of 
year do not pose a problem, but we encourage all thru hikers to be prepared 
for the worst and enjoy the best, so watch the weather, stay in your tent if 
there is a big storm, and carry a tent that will handle it well--you may be 
in it for a day off!

4. Well, that depends when "after peak snow melt" really is and what is 
still present at that time to continue to deal with. Most thru hikers want 
to be as educated as possible before their hikes so they can be as prepared 
as they can to make it through when their time comes. The true conditions on 
the ground vary wildly depending on when they get "there." If "after" means 
when there are ideal conditions of dry trail and low-flowing creeks above 
10,500, then hikers may have to wait into August to get through the Sierra 
in a summer like this one and last. Can a hiker still make it to Canada 
after that and before the snows up north start flying, I doubt it, but with 
some flipping I suppose anything can happen. I'm talking about keeping it 
simple and doing a straight-through thru-hike.

5. If Oregon holds a lot of snow in July, then so be it. It certainly did 
when I hiked through, but I got to Canada before the first snows of 1974! If 
thru hikers want to hike fast and schedule their dream hikes that way, 
leaving "late" and having to hurry north to make the storm deadline, then 
that is their choice and desire. We only wanted to present the idea and ask 
next year's class to consider the option in light of what last year's and 
this year's have had to and are dealing with in regards to snow, creek 
crossings, and safety-related concerns.

6. We want thru hikers to be aware of the conditions they are likely to 
encounter in the High Sierra during the months when they are to be there, 
know what it will take of them to get through it, go around it, or skip it 
entirely, and have a Plan-B. Every year we look into the eyes of hikers who 
have romanticized the concept of the thru hike and really have no "clue" as 
to what they're going to see up there nor how they're going to have to deal 
with it safely. Many just rely on their companions for aid and guidance and 
there's nothing wrong with that except when they leave the trail, hike 
ahead, or are just not around when the help is needed. Once the aspiring 
thru goes up into the Sierras at the time when they expect to be there the 
next year, they will see for themselves just how "exhausting and dangerous a 
regimen" it really is and prepare for it or avoid it by waiting for the snow 
to melt, avoiding it altogether, or flipping (if that really works depends 
on the year's snow levels elsewhere on the entire trail).

7. Mountain Education wants hikers to be realistic about their intentions. 
How do they do that? Go up into the mountains for themselves to see what its 
really like. If they choose to hike late and attempt to attain a dry trail 
all the way to Canada, then they need to realize what that will require of 
their speed and miles required per day to get to Canada before the snow 
flies. Just because we find it more enjoyable to go slow, start early, 
snow-hike, and cross low creeks up north doesn't mean that everyone will see 
it our way nor want to do it this way nor, maybe, they don't have it in 
their schedule, even. HYOH.

Just realize that there are other ideas on the subject and they are not just 
theory or conjecture. I left on the PCT on March 14th and arrived Manning on 
Sept. 2nd.

Thanks for asking me to fill some holes in the subject, Scott!

"Just remember, Be Careful out there!"

Ned Tibbits, Director
Mountain Education
South Lake Tahoe, Ca. 96150
    P: 888-996-8333
    F: 530-541-1456
    C: 530-721-1551
    http://www.mountaineducation.org
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "PCT List" <pctlist at gmail.com>
To: <pct-l at backcountry.net>
Sent: Tuesday, July 12, 2011 4:51 PM
Subject: [pct-l] PCT thru timing for 2012

> Overlooking the irony of an April 1st start date (changed from March I
> see), maybe Ned can answer a few questions that have been clearly
> overlooked and need to be considered.
>
> 1. Does Mountain Education know what percentage of thru-hikers get
> turned around in Washington due to early season snow? This is your big
> selling point and I'll bet you have no clue.
>
> 2. How does Mountain Education address powder/consolidated conditions
> on Mt Laguna, Mt San Jacinto, Big Bear and Baden-Powell in April? You
> seem to have handily ignored this.
>
> 3. How does Mountain Education address certain April winter storm
> conditions in the SoCal mountains? You've completely ignored this as
> well.
>
> 4. Does Mountain Education realize that entering the Sierra *after*
> peak melt when the trail is mostly clear, almost all the hazards
> you've painstakingly noted have diminished greatly or are gone
> completely?
>
> 5. Does Mountain Education realize an April 1st start date puts most
> hikers in the NorCal/Oregon snow as well?
>
> 6. Does Mountain Education realize what an exhausting, dangerous
> regimen they are trying to bestow on the average thru-hiker?
>
> 7. Last, does Mountain Education *really* have the best interest of
> hikers in mind or are you striving to be relevant, create a market and
> demand for yourselves, in lieu of promoting the *ease* of late
> spring/early summer hiking conditions?
>
> -postholer
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