[pct-l] [John Muir Trail] When will the snow go?

[Timothy Nye]

Yes, but....

This isn't last year.

Beacon, a retired B-52 pilot, hiked the CDT last year.  It isn't like he
isn't up to a challenge or doesn't know what he's doing.  Don't Panic and
Wing It, triple crowners, purchased a road atlas so that they can road walk
around the more significant snow obstacles.

Last year I was rehabbing an injury from 2009 while attempting a thru.  I
couldn't hike until last July.  As part of rehab I hiked from Castella to
Etna and Donner to Belden.  I started this year's thru on April 27th.  Of
course, no one would have predicted the seemingly unending series of winter
storms that continued to pummel the west coast well after winter had ended.

There are many factors that enter into whether a thru hike is or can be
completed.  These factors all relate to time and primarily are
individualistic in nature as they relate to an individual thru's ability,
age and conditioning, and capability, skill set in traveling through adverse
conditions such as fords, etc., in meeting the common challenges prevalent
on that year's trail.  Of course, the severity of the conditions may be such
that they push the limits of an individual's ability and capability to the
point were success may not be achieved or were the tolerance of risk has
been exceeded: late snow, early snow, deep snow, dangerous fords, blow
downs, etc.

I flipped up north in part due to an injury to me daughter who joined me in
Southern California 150 miles south of Kennedy Meadows. She wound up having
to get off the trail, but not before we attempted to hike north out
of Belden and I was again after hiking 60 miles north from Old Station.  I'm
pausing to allow some melt time which hopefully will make some difference.
 It's been a succession of 100 +_degree days here in Sacramento.

The drive from Burney Falls to Redding down 299 on Saturday showcased the
Trinities under solid snow cover as far down their flanks as could be seen
past the intervening lesser mountain range.  This is, indeed, not like last
year.  The paper today discussed the Sierra City to Downieville mountain
bike race's course as being under 15 feet of snow and, where there's
pavement, 8 feet of solid ice.  My theory on flipping was that the mountains
were lower in elevation the further north I would go. Then I could do the
now snowy sections when they were clear in half the time it would take
now.  However, outside of Belden I found solid snow cover began at 5400 feet
and north of Burney Falls at 5000 feet.  Ned was absolutely on the money.

Also, a word about maps and compasses.  In order to successfully navigate
with a map and compass frequent bearings must be taken in order to maintain
your situational awareness.  Unlike a GPS you can't wait until you realize
that you're unsure of your location.  This requires a lensmatic compass, the
ability to shoot a back azimuth, a protractor and a straight edge, a pen,
but even more importantly, a larger map than that utilized by Half Mile.
The scale of his are fine for GPS use, but in reality, they lack the
necessary number of easily identifiable distant geographic features from
which to shoot bearings; those too close are plagued with potential problems
with keeping an accurate line of sight such as false summits.  Maps such as
Tom Harrison's are better suited to the task. Yet, even in the best of
circumstances, tree cover can often render map and compass navigation
problematic. Incidentally, waterproof maps are less than ideal as you're
going to be drawing intersecting bearings on the map in order to establish
your location.

Tomorrow I'm meeting Hot Rod and Cricket at Toulumne Meadows  They left
Kennedy Meadows on June 16th.  You don't have to be a math whiz to figure
out that absent a very late winter in Washington averaging a little over 10
miles of trail a day isn't going to get the job done.  That rate of advance
has to be balanced with the usual 30 mile days in Oregon and intervening 20
to 25s. Yet it is up to the individual hiker who is best able to assess his
own condition and drive.  They are unflagging and I will always provide what
support I can.

Finally, let's acknowledge that the list is an open forum for all.  That
means for all viewpoints.  In this I support Redwood.  I think we can all
tolerate the opinions of others.  The voices that express intolerance for
his 'intolerance' go a long way to define irony. A difference of opinion as
the underlying substance of any remark is always valid.  Hopefully, there
will never be a qualification for posting on the list.  Not everyone is
fortunate enough to have thru hiked and not everyone will have the
opportunity to make an attempt much less complete one.   The trail angels
are invaluable.  For some, the list is the closest the will ever be able to
get to the trail through no fault of their own.

Rambling. I guess I saved up a few comments over the months.