[pct-l] Artificial concern for hikers dealing with snow and water

[Eric Lee]

Scott wrote:
>
If a fraction of this faux concern was exercised in oh, say, March or April,
I'd bet the ranch that many hikers would not have bailed or flipped
(attempted to) or quit altogether. BS? No. Read the journals of those who
departed KM in early June versus those who departed late June.
>

First of all, in March or April no one knew exactly how the season would
shape up.  At that point there was still a good chance of a warm spring and
fast melt to take care of the problem.  That being the case, it wasn't bad
advice to tell people, "Try it and see what happens."

Secondly, I've been reading almost all of the journals out there (on both
PostHoler and TrailJournals) and so far I'm not hearing any significant
difference between early June and late June in the Sierra.  The snow cover
is largely the same and people are right now *still* choosing to flip or
quit rather than continue to struggle with it (e.g.
http://www.trailjournals.com/entry.cfm?id=353586 from yesterday, July 4th).
It turns out that "wait" this year means a Sierra entry date of probably
mid-July if you want conditions that are similar to June 15th of an average
year.  Of course the majority of thrus can't make it to Canada before winter
if they don't start the Sierra until mid-July.  So "wait" equals "no
possibility of a completed thru-hike this year".

Third, it got hot in southern California.  I saw in the journals from the
past couple of weeks that some of the stragglers are choosing to skip up to
KM because of the heat rather than do the last couple hundred miles of
"desert".  Having everyone delay starting their hike by a month this year
wouldn't significantly change the risk level; it would just change the risk
away from falls and drowning to dehydration and heat stroke.

Bottom line is that this just a crappy year for a thru-hike.  Either you try
it anyway and see if you get lucky or you stay home and do it some other
time.  There isn't any other magic solution.  For most people, it's not
feasible to delay the start date by a month or more.  There are very good
reasons why the end of April is preferred and those reasons don't go away
just because there's an obstacle on the path.

Is it dangerous out there this year?  Absolutely.  I'm frankly surprised
that no thru-hikers have died yet, considering the heart-stopping close
calls I read about in the journals.  But telling thru-hikers (most of whom
can't start pounding out 30 mile days right off the bat) to start their
hikes at the end of May is no solution.  Sure, a few of them can and do
start that late but most of them can't and won't.  The only reasonable
option is to go for it, see for yourself, and try to stay safe.

Eric