[pct-l] Oregon outlook

Sun Feb 13 14:31:02 CST 2011

I just checked our (SF Bay area) weather forecast this morning. Very wet for 
the next week, highs generally up to mid-50s and snow down to 2000 feet 
later this week.

Yup, to soon to predict hiking conditions in the Sierra in June & July.

Ken
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Brian McLaughlin" <brianmclaugh at comcast.net>
To: "Nathan Miller" <erccmacfitheal at yahoo.com>; <pct-l at backcountry.net>
Sent: Sunday, February 13, 2011 11:59 AM
Subject: Re: [pct-l] Oregon outlook

Thanks for the report. Current conditions reflect a
heavy December snowfall, followed by a drier January
and about a week when it was warmish all the way up
to 5000 ft., melting a lot of snow at the pass levels.

However, mid February is still much too early
to know what snow conditions will be come summer.
All we need is a cold, wet spring and what you saw
yesterday could change entirely. We've had cold, wet
springs two out of the last three years.

Aimless

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Nathan Miller" <erccmacfitheal at yahoo.com>
To: <pct-l at backcountry.net>
Sent: Sunday, February 13, 2011 8:44 AM
Subject: [pct-l] Oregon outlook

>I went over to Central Oregon yesterday and decided to also take the
>opportunity to do some trail recon.  I went over Santiam Pass and returned
>over Wapanitia Pass.  I was surprised by what I saw...or, rather, what I
>didn't see.
>
> The snow cover up there is rather anemic.  At Santiam Pass, I saw a little
> bit of bare ground here and there, amounting to maybe 5% of the total
> area.  Normally, there should be no bare ground visible at all this time
> of year.  Those of you who've been there know that Santiam Pass is a
> broad, nearly flat, volcanic ash plain (and now those of you who haven't
> been there also know this).  You'll also know that the fires a few years
> ago left it pretty open for the foreseeable future, so there's effectively
> no foliage to block snowfall an areas in the vicinity of the road (There's
> still plenty of unburned forest starting a few trail miles south of the
> road.), so this paints a decent picture.  Santiam Pass is around 4800 ft.
> On steepers slopes, the amount of snowcover is less and as I crested
> the...er...crest and entered the rain-shadow, the snowcover dropped so
> dramatically, that within just a couple of road miles, there was none at
> all!
>
> Going back over Wapanitia Pass, there was very little snow until just west
> of the Hwy. 216 junction.  It looked like I could have even driven in to
> Timothy Lake without much trouble.  At the pass, where the PCT crosses the
> highway, I'd say there was maybe 80-90% snow cover.  The probably
> indicated more precipitation than at Santiam because the tree canopy is
> fully intact here.  Still, it looked like I probably could have hiked the
> trail from here to Breitenbush Lake without too much trouble.
>
> -A look at the traffic cams at www.tripcheck.com reveals that the
> currently thin snow cover is also the case at the other passes.  Even what
> I can see from the Mt. Ashland ski area cam suggests there's less snow
> there at 7000 ft. than there should be in mid-February.
>
> The ski areas on Mt. Hood and Gov't Camp had their night lights on, so
> they're still going, but the base looks kind of thin.  There's more snow
> predicted over the next week, which will add to what's there.  Still, it's
> looking like we can expect a low snow year in the Oregon Cascades.  This
> could be good or bad depending on how you look at it.  For us lowly
> section-hikers, it could be good because it means we can get out there
> earlier.  For us veggie gardeners, it could be good because it indicates
> it may be warmer this season (Last year sucked for veggies--it took
> forever for summer to arrive and even when it did, it was really weak and
> a lot of people had to figure out what to do with a whole lot of green
> tomatoes...things like melons, especially watermelon, were complete lost
> causes.).  It might not be so good for through-hikers because once y'all
> slog through all the heavy Sierra snow--which looks like it'll take a lot
> longer this year--y'all'll face
> prematurely drying water sources in Oregon and NorCal.  Earlier drying
> will also increase fire danger, which, of course, could pose problems for
> hikers.  On the other hand, earlier drying could also shorten the mosquito
> season, which would be good news for everyone.  An earlier spring could be
> good for the mountain huckleberry crop, or the earlier drying could be bad
> for it.  If that latter is the case, there could be more trouble with
> bears in September and October as they look for supplemental food.
>
> We still have a couple of months until through-hiking season starts and
> most of us know that a lot can happen weather-wise between now and then.
> Still, it's currently looking like it might be a good year for
> flip-flopping.
>
> -Nate the Trail Zombie
> Newberg, OR
>
>
>
>
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