[pct-l] Bear danger on the PCT - put in perspective

[Ryan Hull]

Fundamentally I agree with what the author of grizzlybay is trying to show.
 However, I feel obligated to point out several things.

1:  The authors of this website cite no sources for their stats, nor do they
explain how they were derived if they happen to be the result of the
authors' own research.  After all, 76% of all stats are made up on the spot
-- just like this one :)

2:  Assuming that these stats are accurate, consider exactly what they are
saying and the populations they assume.  Take the dying from a bee sting
statistic.  Sure, you may be 120 more times likely to die from a bee sting
than from a black bear attack in general.  But how many of those people
dieing from stings or bears are in urban settings?  If you were to compare
the # of deaths by black bear per # of people with the potential to be
mauled to the # of deaths by bee stings per # of people with the potential
to be stung, and I suspect that the numbers would be much closer.  In other
words, for the general population the ratio may be 120:1 but for regular
outdoorspeople, maybe it's closer to 40:1?  I'm just guessing.  It's hard to
say, especially since people who play outside are more likely to be stung by
bees to begin with.

3:  I, for one, consider it to be substantially misleading to publish black
bear attack statistics when trying to prove that grizzly bears are not going
to eat you ;)

Again, I agree, based on my own anecdotal experience and the general wisdom
of other avid outdoorsmen and women, with the author's premise that bears
are unlikely to injure you.  I just don't think a skeptic educated in
statistics would be convinced by a presentation like this without more
detail.