[pct-l] Modifying hike

[Scott Williams]

In two months dramatic changes can happen to the CA snow pack.  Don't plan
for it just yet, except to have your winter gear sent to KM.  Decide what is
best based on the conditions you find as you get closer to the Sierra, and
your own sense of yourself as a hiker.   You will already have been tested
in the southern mountains a bit.  Last year we had a lot of snow, not
because it was a particularly big snow pack, but because April, May and June
were unusually cold.  Snow was high, but firm, and the rivers were
manageable, that's to say they only scared the shit out of us, but we all
made it through.  I remember years when a heat wave has hit the Sierra in
spring and has melted the snow pack over such a short time, that great
portions of the Central Valley were flooded for days.  During that melt off
would not have been a good time to hit the Sierra river crossings, but it
got rid of the snow quick, and after the melt, the hiking would have been
fine.  Just wait and see.

As for jumping forward, it's always an option.  Those who did it last year
for reasons of snow, or fear of river crossings, and I knew both, found a
lot of snow in Northern CA and Oregon, and tens of thousands of blow downs.
 The estimates south of Dunsmuir were 300 per mile.  I counted 86 actual
trees in the trail, in a 1/4 mile stretch, before I lost count.  So that
slowed them down too.  One friend gave up after climbing over 10' diameter
trees on steep slopes in snow.  She got lost in the mess, and finally gave
up and had to hike 50 miles back to Dunsmuir.  Of the people I was hiking
near, the ones who jumped forward said it had been very hard, but they did
make up several days on those of us who went over the High Sierra in the
snow.  We started crossing paths again not far from Tahoe.   We all evened
out by the end of trail however, and were passing into WA within a day of
each other, some of us all together.  So it was 6 of 1, 1/2 dozen of
another.

But this is way to early to decide on any strategy for the High Sierra in my
opinion.  Give it some time, and then decide.

Shroomer