[pct-l] Probability of Disaster

Thu Sep 2 07:51:05 CDT 2010

Good morning, Gary,

I don’t have comprehensive information on hikers who have met their end on
the PCT – I can only remember three – but that generally only means that
there haven’t been very many.

5-6 years ago a section hiker perished when attempting to ford Mt. Hood’s
Sandy River early in the season when it was in flood.  She was found
downstream still wearing her pack.  I did not get the impression that gear –
or the lack of it – was significant, except she hadn’t slipped out of her
pack: she was found still wearing it.

“No-Way Ray” perished due to a fall from the trail in the steep Deep Creek
Canyon, but that was apparently just a miss-step that didn’t relate to gear.
Ray was an experienced -- and fairly lite-weight -- hiker.

That same year, I believe, an older gentleman apparently become
lost/confused in the San Jacintos above Palm Springs.  I don’t have much
information about that incident except he may have died of exposure.  That
death may have related to a lack of preparation/gear or he may have just
become disoriented and incapable of using the resources he had at hand.

Considering there are 300-400 thru-hike attempts every year, plus many
thousands of day-hikers, week-enders, and section hikers, I continue to
believe the likelihood of encountering a serious problem is very slim,
particularly when hiking in-season, and in fairly close association with
others.

Steel-Eye

Hiking the Pct since before it was the PCT – 1965

http://www.trailjournals.com/steel-eye

http://www.trailjournals.com/SteelEye09

On Wed, Sep 1, 2010 at 4:17 PM, Gary Schenk <gwschenk at socal.rr.com> wrote:

> An interesting post with much food for thought.
>
> A couple of question:
> How many PCTers have died from being under-equipped?
> How many PCTers have died from being over-equipped?
>
> On 9/1/2010 4:00 PM, CHUCK CHELIN wrote:
> > Good afternoon, all,
> >
> > I represent the ultra-lite faction when discussing gear.  For a
> > long-distance hike I prefer to keep my base weight around 8 lbs, and
> seldom
> > conditionally stretch that to 10-12 lbs.  I’ll admit one of my basic
> credos
> > is, “When in doubt, leave it out.”  That doesn’t leave a lot of margin
> for
> > “difficulty”, but having successfully survived wilderness situations for
> > about 50 years I feel comfortable with that approach.
> >
> >
> >
> > Sir Winston Churchill once said, “Why, you may take the most gallant
> sailor,
> > the most intrepid airman or the most audacious soldier, put them at a
> table
> > together- what do you get?  The sum of all fears.”  Author, Tom Clancy,
> like
> > that comment so much that he borrowed part of it to use as the title of
> one
> > of his books.
> >
> >
> >
> > PCT-L is much like that meeting table:  One expert claims a 4-season tent
> is
> > necessary.  Another says lots of layers of clothes is best.  One claims
> > communication is the key with a phone, a two-way radio, and a SPOT.
>  Another
> > advocates having full-on alpine climbing gear.  Occasionally someone
> feels
> > they need to carry a gun to foil the large, carnivorous wildlife.
>  Someone
> > else simply must have a serious, expedition-capable first-aid kit.  It
> goes
> > on and on: All of their arguments seem to have merit but if we take the
> sum
> > of their recommendations to heart we end up carrying a huge load.
> >
> >
> >
> > Those who advocate carrying lots of “what if” gear usually claim they
> want a
> > greater margin in the event of a problem.  They say, “What if …
> (something
> > bad)… happens?  I would certainly … (suffer somehow) … with no-one around
> to
> > help.  If I just pack … (an additional item) … I could use it to save my
> > life.”
> >
> >
> >
> > That all sounds very sensible as we play these “what if” games in our
> mind,
> > but let’s parse that statement and see what it really means.  That
> statement
> > presupposes:
> >
> > 1)       Something bad could happen, and,
> >
> > 2)      The result could be a disaster, and,
> >
> > 3)      There are no options to consider, and,
> >
> > 4)      An additional piece(s) of gear is the answer, and,
> >
> > 5)      I can use that gear to resolve the disaster.
> >
> >
> >
> > If any of those suppositions are untrue – meaning having a near-0%
> > probability of occurring – the entire scenario is either not going to
> happen
> > or the results will be significantly mitigated.  If all five of those
> > suppositions are possible, the probability of each actually happening is
> > sequentially multiplied.  That’s why it’s called sequential conditional
> > logic.
> >
> > For example, bad things may be possible but they don’t often happen –
> except
> > in our minds.  What’s the chance of our being caught in a freak
> snowstorm,
> > or being stranded on a high-angle snowfield, or encountering a really
> deep,
> > dangerous ford, etc.?  Pick a number – let’s say it’s 20%.
> >
> > Next, what’s the chance of that event – if it happens -- really being a
> > potential disaster?  I don’t mean the discomfort of being soaked to the
> > skin; or the inconvenience of a cold, uncomfortable night; I mean
> something
> > that genuinely threatens life and limb?  Again, pick a number -- let’s
> say
> > it’s 10%.
> >
> > Also, what are the chances that there are no options available to
> mitigate
> > the potentially disastrous possibility?  Is there no-one around to lend a
> > hand?  Is there no re-route that can be taken?  Can one not bail out on a
> > convenient side trail?  Is it not possible to just continue to hike –
> even
> > night-hike -- to stay warm?  I submit there are almost always options to
> > avoid disaster, but let’s say there’s a 20% chance that no viable options
> > are available.
> >
> > Next, what’s the chance that an extra piece(s) of gear will really save
> the
> > day?  It can happen:  Maybe a nice 4-season tent would help.  Maybe a
> > generous array of alpine climbing gear would get us off the hook.  Maybe
> a
> > GPS would help us find our way back to the trail. Maybe a really full-on
> set
> > of storm gear with extra clothing would save the day, etc.  Gear won’t
> get
> > us out all troubles, but I’ll say there’s a 50% chance it will.
> >
> > Finally, what’s the probability that we actually know how to effectively
> > employ that extra gear?  A tent we can pitch; clothes we can put on, etc,
> > but many – or most -- hikers can’t use climbing gear; most can’t use GPS
> > effectively; and the contents of a big “survival kit” or an expedition
> > first-aid kit are largely a mystery.  A gun?  Very likely the average
> hiker
> > couldn’t hit a circus tent with it at any range over 10 feet.  I guess
> the
> > odds of a hiker being actually able to use specialized extra gear to be
> 50%
> > at best.
> >
> > So here’s how it stacks up:  The likelihood,
> >
> > … of an event happening, 20%
> >
> > … of it being potential disaster,  10%
> >
> > … of few/no options or help being available,  20%
> >
> > … of gear being the substantial answer, 50%
> >
> > … of expertise being available to employ gear, 50%
> >
> > Now comes the “sequential” part:  Multiply 0.20 x 0.10 x 0.20 x 0.50 x
> 0.50
> > and see that the result of that conditional string equals 0.001 which is
> > 0.1%.  That’s a one tenth of one percent likelihood of all that
> happening.  I,
> > for one, am not going to carry very much extra gear against such a
> > probability.  Don’t quarrel with my numbers; plug in your own.
> >
> > Your results may vary – as will your pack weight.
> >
> >
> >
> > “Tools are deceiving.  They have a way of making you think you can use
> them,
> > as you study them and imagine yourself owing them...  There is no name
> for
> > this quality that tools -- have, but it’s undeniable.”
> >
> > -- Geoffrey Norman, *Outside*, Oct. 1986
> >
> >
> >
> > Steel-Eye
> >
> > Hiking the Pct since before it was the PCT – 1965
> >
> > http://www.trailjournals.com/steel-eye
> >
> > http://www.trailjournals.com/SteelEye09
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