[pct-l] Probability of Disaster

[Diane Soini of Santa Barbara Hikes]

On Sep 1, 2010, at 4:44 PM, pct-l-request at backcountry.net wrote:

> An interesting post with much food for thought.
>
> A couple of question:
> How many PCTers have died from being under-equipped?
> How many PCTers have died from being over-equipped?

Probability of success:
How many PCTers have reached Canada with a pack in the neighborhood  
of (I'll be generous) 45 or more lbs?

Just browsing google image search, most people look to be carrying  
typical thru-hiker gear of sub 20lbs. Little packs go far.  
Traditional heavy-weight packs do not.

Ultralight isn't just a fashion. It was born out of the necessity of  
thru-hikers who want to get to Canada before the snow flies. I would  
say the typical ultralight hiker standing on the Canadian border has  
better equipment than the typical, over-loaded, what-iffed to  
insanity traditional backpacker.

Ned just wants to scare people into taking his class. He need not do  
that. He need not gloat every time snow falls somewhere on the trail  
and start preaching about the need for ice axes in July and -15  
degree bags in August (Holy cow! How many people can actually sleep  
with a bag 45 degrees too hot?). Plenty of people would like to learn  
how to self-arrest and walk on snow safely. They are not interested  
in how to backpack like the days of yore before silnylon and titanium  
and they're turned off by someone purposefully confusing a light  
dusting of snow on the trail for a life-threatening storm requiring  
Everest expedition equipment.

Sorry to be so blunt.