[pct-l] Fw: Weather Expectations & Planning

[Edward Anderson]

VERY well said.  I wonder how many UL'ers will heed your advise.  Two or three 
extra pounds might save a hiker's life.

MendoRider




________________________________
From: "ned at mountaineducation.org" <ned at mountaineducation.org>
To: johnmuirtrail at yahoogroups.com
Cc: PCT MailingList <pct-l at backcountry.net>
Sent: Wed, September 1, 2010 1:25:39 PM
Subject: [pct-l] Weather Expectations & Planning

We all know that mountains create their own weather. As a collective body, we 
have lots of personal experience on-trail in the High Sierra where the weather 
has changed dramatically within a few hours. We, also, know that you may 
experience snow in any given month there.

So, why not just prepare for the worst and hope for the best? Why do we choose 
to trust the statistical averages found on-line somewhere, then, based on that, 
decide to bring whatever gear, clothing, and food that will get us through that 
degree of anticipated weather condition?

For example, and not to be too redundant, say the statistics state that it is 
usually warm and dry up there when we want to take our hike, so we select 
sleeping bags rated to that warm standard, clothing that is light and thin for 
the "warm weather," and just enough food to get us through from one end to the 
other. Is this in order to optimistically carry the lightest pack? 


OK, we're smarter than that, because we are aware that it can rain in the 
summer, so we carry a poncho and maybe another layer of clothing--just in case. 
That's good preparation. So, what happens to "Joe Hiker" when the weather 
suddenly takes a turn worse than rain and the air temps fall into the twenty's, 
the wind kicks up because of the pressure gradient change, and it starts dumping 
snow? He suffers. As a collective body, we need to advise hikers to consider 
history. That's wisdom.

I guess this is the great trade-off:  either be prepared and have a large and 
heavier pack (and have to deal with the fact that you didn't have to carry all 
that stuff because the circumstances didn't require it after the trip) or just 
deal with a short-term freezing experience that can kill you while having a 
lighter pack for the longer term.

Is Planning and Preparation just coming down to "the odds?" Are we all so 
willing to risk enduring a health and safety crisis like hypothermia because, if 
you survive it, it doesn't usually last long compared to all those hours and 
days enjoying hiking with a lighter pack? Who can say how much time you're going 
to have to suffer rain, snow, dehydration, or starvation on your next 
trip--statistics? Plan for the worst and hope for the best and have a great time 
out there.

Why not just be a little wiser, maturely acknowledging that "the s___ can hit 
the fan" at any given moment, and plan on dealing with it and preparing for it 
by carrying what it takes to safely experience these aspects of mountain life in 
a warm and dry setting with lots of food and water? Yes, you'll have to carry 
more stuff, but it doesn't have to be the heaviest versions--just make sure 
they'll take the expected punishment while keeping you warm and safe.

Hey, you can even look at this choice for a lack of realistic preparation for 
these obvious changes in weather conditions from the Search and Rescue point of 
view. When you deliberately put yourself in jeopardy, by not preparing for the 
worst, and suddenly find yourself there and need outside help, you are putting 
other people's lives in the same jeopardy in order to save you.

Oh, well.... Hike Your Own Hike, right? 

Yes, some of this is self-discovery, finding out who you are, what you like, 
what you can get by without, how strong you are, and so forth, but aren't we 
supposed to learn from those who have gone before us (History and Common Sense)? 


I just don't get why we strive for the lightest pack (by not bringing all that 
stuff that will help me get through what may never happen anyway) at the expense 
of our safety under the statistical-odds-assurance that "it doesn't usually 
happen" or "it didn't happen when I was there last." 


Strive for the lightest pack that you can have, but be prepared (for the worst 
so that you don't have a bad experience, suffer for it, or cause others to 
suffer from your decisions). 


Make sure, before you leave, that the lighter fabric rain gear you have is 
durable enough to last, the tent you're carrying can take horizontal rain and 
you'll still stay warm and dry or has the strength to withstand a foot of wet 
snow piled up on top, the shoes you wear will keep you warm, dry, and protected, 
and the bag you've chosen is more than warm enough should the temps plummet (you 
can always sleep underneath it). If you have considered all that may happen and 
have found a proven way to you to be adequately prepared where you know that 
your health and safety will not be jeopardized (or be jeopardized to a level 
that you can endure through), then you have planned responsibly.  


However, some will always opt for the odds, figure "they can make it through," 
and choose to hike unprepared for the "less likely." Sometimes we hear of their 
"misfortune-fortune," as if it was just chance that they had to survive what 
they did, but not usually. I guess because we live in the mountains and serve on 
two Sheriff's Department's Search and Rescue Units that we see more of these sad 
situations than most.

Oh, well. What happened to "Common Sense," anyway?

We all know that mountains create their own weather....



Ned Tibbits, Director
Mountain Education
1106A Ski Run Blvd
South Lake Tahoe, Ca. 96150
    P: 888-996-8333
    F: 530-541-1456
    C: 530-721-1551
    http://www.mountaineducation.org
_______________________________________________
Pct-L mailing list
Pct-L at backcountry.net
To unsubcribe, or change options visit:
http://mailman.backcountry.net/mailman/listinfo/pct-l

List Archives:
http://mailman.backcountry.net/pipermail/pct-l/