[pct-l] 2010 Hiker Migration Estimated

[jason moores]

From: jmmoores at hotmail.com
To: paulbodnar at hotmail.com
Subject: RE: [pct-l] 2010 Hiker Migration Estimated
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2010 17:26:09 -0700








"A statistical sample of the electronic journals were painfully analyzed
to obtain a representative distribution for both the beginning and end
distribution"


Why, dude?

Jason


> From: paulbodnar at hotmail.com
> To: jeff.singewald at comcast.net; pct-l at backcountry.net
> Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2010 18:23:13 -0500
> Subject: Re: [pct-l] 2010 Hiker Migration Estimated
> 
> 
> Hi Jeff,
> 
>  
> 
> >Just wondering how to identified the 09 data points.  Was this done through a review of PCT trail registers, interviews with 09 thru hikers or another >methodology. 
> 
>  
> 
> The data points are shown on the charts on the website, there were a total of five sets of data points used to create the estimate.  I presented each set of data as a distribution.  One at the beginning and the end of the trail which were estimated from data collected from electronic trail journals.  A statistical sample of the electronic journals were painfully analyzed to obtain a representative distribution for both the beginning and end distribution.  The remaining three sets of data points were collected from trail registers.  The data is analyzed assuming a statistical representation from these trail journals and trail registers.    
> 
>  
> 
> > How many specific data points were gathered for your estimates and what mileage per day average did you utilize to map out the linear progression northward?
> 
>  
> 
> For example the Oasis Cache and HikerTown sample size (which I recently collected) was 244 and 241 respectively.  The number of hikers is assumed much greater than this but these numbers provide a good representative sample of the distribution of hikers.  You don't need an accurate count of every hiker to obtain an accurate distribution, just a good sample size.  I used a linear regression to predict the timing of the hikers between data points.  The R^2 value for the data analyzed exceeded 0.996 and was as high as 0.998.  This suggests that the data is linear as indicated.
> 
>  
> 
> I have made numerous requests for other trail register information further North but have not received any additional information.  (For the record L-Rod has offerred her data.  But I have not had the time to review and enter the data.)  I have tried my best to present the best information I can with the limited information I have.  If you have other data that can make the prediction better please forward it to me.
> 
>  
> 
> Thank you for your interest in the study.
> 
>  
> 
> Paul
> 
>  
> 
>  
> 
> 
>  
>  		 	   		  
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