[pct-l] UL vs going without

[Bob Bankhead]

Whoever dies with the least gear and/or the lightest pack........still dies.

Use common sense when lightening your load. Retain functionality but slowly reduce complexity and weight as your experience and confidence grow. 

No sleeping bag; just sleep in my clothes instead?
Works great if it stays warm; sucks if it doesn't.

No shelter or rain gear?
Works great if it stays dry; really sucks if it doesn't.

No high winds so I don't need my bivy sack?
Works great if winds are calm; cold night if they aren't

No stove or pot; just eating cold no-cook food?
Works great if it stays warm and dry (and you can stomach it for the whole trip)
Sucks if it doesn't.


Let's assume that all three of these event have an equal chance of happening and let's assume that's 95%:

- night temperatures warm enough that I won't need a sleeping bag
- no rain, so I won't need either a shelter nor rain gear
- no high winds, so I won't need a bivy sack

The chance that any one of these of these will occur is still 95% and the failure risk is 5%
The chance that any two of these will occur is 90% but failure risk has doubled to 10%
The chance that all three of these will occur is 86% and failure risk is up to 14%

The lesson here is that the more things there are that must all go right, the less the chance that they will. Only you know how much risk you're willing to take and how much experience you have to help you deal with the consequences when chance turns against you. That's where common sense comes in.

Andy Skurka and Ryan Jordan can get away with things I have no business even attempting, and even with all their skill and experience, I'm willing to bet they each have had some miserable days and nights on the trail.

But as we're so fond of saying........HYOH