[pct-l] early prediction of Sierra Snow 2010

[Postholer]

> Almost without exception, the early season of snowfall
> tends to give the story for the year.

"Almost without exception" is the troublesome part!

Based on the last 9 years that is not an accurate statement. I haven't done 
the diligence for the last 30 years, but I will shortly. Even without 
looking at 30 years, the "Almost without exception" has already left the 
building. Here's a quickie:

4 of the last 9 years started above normal (Jan 1), at most 2 were above 
normal on Apr 1 or Jun 1. Your statement is true 33% of the time.

Decide for yourself. Select all years except cur, min, max and look at the 
graphs, particularly the southern graph as this is the one that most 
concerns hikers: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/swcchart.action

-postholer

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