[pct-l] early prediction of Sierra Snow 2010

[enyapjr at comcast.net]

> As many know, I've given the snow travel talk at the Kick Off the last few years, 
> so I watch the snow pretty carefully throughout the season.
> 
> Almost without exception, the early season of snowfall tends to give the story for 
> the year.  Although it is very early, yet, we are looking at an average to below 
> average year again.  I throw this out there for planning purposes, with the full 
> understanding that thing could change dramatically.
> ...
> <http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/PLOT_SWC.2010.pdf>

IMHO, "Almost without exception" is really stretching it!  December is too early to tell
what the entire winter/spring snow season will bring...  One doesn't have to go back too far
to see an "exception" - <http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/PLOT_SWC.2006.pdf> ...
December, 2005, was near 'normal' - then heavy snow in early January and a long snowy
period in March & early April resulted in a substantial snowpack (150-175% of 'normal')...
If one looks through the records, there are many other "exceptions", also - unfortunately
those nice, easy to read graphs linked above only go back a handful of years.   :-(
I'm not predicting what the 2009/2010 snow season will bring - only stating that it's too
early to make any decisions regarding snow quantity...
There is also another factor that most don't discuss much regarding the snowpack - temperature,
and how it may hinder or enhance the melt off...  That can also be 'seen' (inferred) in some 
of the graphs (change the year in the URL to see other graphs in addition to those links above)...

2010 thrus - have patience and "wait & see" what the season brings...  The April 1st 
prognosticators will give their Sierra WAGs - then you, too, can 'guess' what will actually 
happen between April and June to 'finalize' your plans, but do plan to be 'flexible'!   :-)

Happy trails!!!
Jim (PITA)


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