[pct-l] Snowpack & northbounder timing

[Weathercarrot]

Hi Ed - you wrote:

<< This year has seen lots of train problems both in Donner Pass area as well as the Cascades.
So where is all the global warming? I personally believe its exists but it also seems we are having
lots more snow problems out west. Is the rest of the USA having the same problem with snow this
year.... I think the tornado this week was pretty early also........ In 5/7 years down the road will
the dates for starting out in Campo be earlier or later?  Weathercarrot? any info here?>>

I would just say that southern CA precipitation seasons have always been all over the map as far
as precip totals, snow conditions,  spring storms (if any), and timing of snow melt.  We went from
almost all time high spring/summer snowpack in 05 to average in 06 to virtually all-time low 
precip/snowpack in 07.  I think whatever may actually be happening with global climate change 
in the next 5-10 years would probably leave southern CA with a similar wide range of yearly 
variation, and very hard to predict. So I think the average Campo time may stay about the
same, with potential big differences from season to season.  

Southern CA still has a long way to go to match the 1998 and 2005 rain/snow seasons, which
were about even, with some spots bigger in 98 and other spots bigger in 05.  And as far the Sierra,
we're still well behind 2005 and 2006 levels, but doing MUCH better than 2007.

I would also say that the more relevent snowpack regions for thru-hikers (as far as timing a
Campo start) is from San Jacinto to Carson Pass (by Tahoe). Northern CA and the Cascades
have less impact because of how late most northbounders arrive there. However, a notable 
exception was what the earlier 1999 northbounders ran into around Three Sisters and Jefferson
Park, where significant August snow navigation was needed.  February is far too early to know 
what kind of summer snow conditions we'll see in those two OR areas. Even if they have similar
snow totals by May/June, the melt pattern could be very different.

wc   
 
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