[pct-l] Southbound dreams

[Eric Lee (GAMES)]

Austin wrote:
>
What is a good date to begin a 2008 southbound thru-hike?  My primary
concern is being able to find the trail.  There has been an awful lot of
snow this winter, and the spring doesn't look like it's going to be very
warm.  My window is currently July 1st through July 15th.
>

It's always hard to say.  In a normal year the general recommendation for a south-bound start is roughly June 15th (assuming you're ok with a fair amount of snow travel here and there).  This year, it's a particularly tricky call because northern Washington is actually below normal in snow but the rest of Washington and Oregon are well above average.  It may be possible to start from Manning even earlier than June 15th, but then you might get stopped by unusually late snow somewhere around Stevens or Snoqualmie Pass.

In a normal year, the melt-off usually starts somewhere between April 1st and April 15th depending on which snow sensor you look at.  This year, it hasn't started yet and judging from the weather forecast, probably won't until at least this weekend.  Areas south of Stevens Pass were already well above average in snow on the ground, and now the melt is late as well.  What does that mean for this summer?  Who knows, but the odds are pretty good for snow to linger for at least two, likely three weeks later than normal throughout much of the Cascades.

That all boils down to maybe indicating a July 7th start date or so, assuming you want to be able to keep walking once you start, not get blocked anywhere, and not deal with winter mountaineering conditions.  So that's right within your window.  But the bottom line is that it's just too early to predict anything with any accuracy yet, so stay flexible.  Unlike a traditional NOBO hike, a SOBO hike is governed by the quirks of weather right up to the day you start.

If you start around July 15th or later, you're going to have to move briskly to make it through the Sierra before the winter snows begins there, so keep that in mind as well.

Eric