[pct-l] The Window is Closing Fast

[jeff.singewald at comcast.net]

Greg,

Good point.  My bad.  The group had reached Cutthroat Pass not Chinook Pass!  Sorry bout that confusion.

Elevator

-------------- Original message -------------- 
From: Greg Kesselring <gkesselr at whidbey.com> 
I'm curious, why would they go all the way up to Winthrop to overnight, if they were at Chinook Pass?  Chinook Pass is down by Mt Rainier, Winthrop is way up near the Canadian border.  It's probably 5 hours or more by car between the two.

I wish them luck.  Keep us posted.

They better be prepared for hiking in snow, possibly a foot or more by the latter part of this week because the freezing level is forecast to stay low most of the week.  The last stretch from Rainy Pass to the Border could be particularly challenging because much of that section is above 6000 feet and quite a bit of it close to and above 7000.  By the end of this week there could be a foot or more on the ground at that elevation.  It will be cold up there too.

Sometimes after unsettled weather in September, we get an Indian Summer in the high country that can last thru mid-October.  But not this year, unless it's planning to assert itself after next weekend.  The next seven days look like miserable hiking weather for the mountains:


WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DARRINGTON...MARBLEMOUNT...CONCRETE...
INDEX...SNOQUALMIE PASS...RANDLE...PACKWOOD...ASHFORD...MORTON
400 AM PDT MON OCT 1 2007

.TODAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 3 INCHES.
SNOW LEVEL 5000 FEET. AFTERNOON PASS TEMPERATURES NEAR 40. WEST WIND
IN THE PASSES 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW NORTH CASCADES. RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY
CENTRAL CASCADES. LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 4 INCHES. SNOW LEVEL
5000 FEET. WEST WIND IN THE PASSES 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND BREEZY. SNOW LEVEL 6000 FEET.
AFTERNOON PASS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. WEST WIND IN
THE PASSES 10 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 4500 FEET. WIND IN THE PASSES
LIGHT BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 4000 FEET. AFTERNOON PASS
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WIND IN THE PASSES 10
TO 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 4000 FEET.
.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 3500 FEET.
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL 3500 FEET.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVEL
4000 FEET.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVEL
6500 FEET.
.SUNDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 5500 FEET.

jeff.singewald at comcast.net wrote: 
Just spoke with a good friend last night who was spending the night in Winthrop WA (Rainy Pass).  He was with 9 other thru-hikers that had turned around near Chinook Pass yesterday afternoon due to poor conditions (limited visability and 6 inches of snow).  They decided to overnight in Winthrop and had made a decision to make another effort as a large group to get through the final 70-80 miles.

The weather forecast looks like it will be a challenge for this group of 10 as the weather front has moved in.  This may be one of the final groups to give it a go this season.  While I am not certain this was the wisest decision given the conditions I understand how strong "finish fever" can be.  The 46 mile final day through the fire closure that I did last year was clear evidence that our judgements are sometimes impaired by this fever.

I will anxiously await word that the group reaches the terminus or turns back again.

Elevator

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