[pct-l] Weather forecasts ---> was: Survival gear

[Greg Kesselring]

Wow, Chris, thanks much for writing up all this detail.  Very useful.

One comment about the weather forecasts:  While I agree with you that TV 
forecasts are next to useless, I find the forecasts and especially the 
Forecast Discussion on the NOAA website very useful and often right on 
the money.  You have to know what to look for though, and know something 
about the microclimates of the area you're living in.  If you've lived 
in Anacortes for a while, I'm sure you know that the forecast for the 
lowlands can be totally different than for the mountains.  And I find 
just the forecast by itself doesn't tell me a whole lot.  The Forecast 
Discussion makes it all come together.  There you get the detail that's 
behind the forecast, what the computer models are forecasting  and 
whether they are all in agreement or not.  If the models are all over 
the place, the reliability of the forecast will be low.  Even the 
mountains themselves have microclimates, the Crest usually getting the 
worst weather, east of the Crest the best and west of the crest usually 
as bad, but not always, as the Crest itself. 

Anyway, that's my plug for NOAA.  It's a great information resource for 
me.  (I musta been a weatherman in a past life.) 

To state the obvious about the weather, though:  It's a chaotic system, 
one in which even the smallest variables (e.g. butterflies flapping 
their wings) make a difference.  As a result, it's likely that weather 
prediction will never be 100 percent accurate, and the further out into 
the future the forecast is, the greater the likelihood of them getting 
it wrong.  Bottom line:  Go with the forecast, but be prepared for 
something different in case they get it 100 percent wrong!

Greg

PS  Hope your toes and feet are healing nicely and you're now able to 
get around okay.

PPS  I posted your account of your rescue on nwhikers.net which resulted 
in much discussion.  But mostly everyone was amazed at what you and the 
group had to endure and congratulated you on doing everything right to 
get found once you got into trouble.

cvano at tmail.com wrote:
> OK, here's what worked for us and what didn't.
>
> Sleeping bags.  3 down and one synthetic rated between 0 and 20.  The 
> down all got wet notwithstanding our best attempts to keep them dry.  4 
> of us survived under 1 synthetic bag opened up.
>
> Tent.  Tarptent was not made for 5 feet of snow.  It withstood the load 
> but snow and water came in through the mesh.  3 pole bivy, could not 
> even pee in it, nor share body warmth.  Sierra Designs 2 man tent slept 
> 4 of us in survival conditions with 5 pads.  Our feet were in the 
> vestibule a lot of the time.  We hung a wet down bag across the door to 
> stop the wind.  I don't know what it weighs but it was split between 2 
> people.  No foot print was used for any of these.
>
> Stoves.  We actually set fire to a portion of the no-see-em netting in 
> the Sierra Designs tent using MSR stoves.  Not fire proof.  We used my 
> alcohol stove exclusively after that.  From match light, it was actually 
> quicker to boil 2 cups of water made from snow.  We also used it hourly 
> or so during the nights for heat.  Cooked 7 meals, made probably 2 
> gallons of water from snow, heated the tent 10 or 15 minutes each hour 
> for probably close to 40 hours.  Used 1/2 of a fifth Capt Morgan plastic 
> bottle of fuel.  That's about 2 cups?
>
> Frog Toggs.  After wearing, traveling X-country, and sleeping in them 3 
> nights, they have one small rip and are fuzzy.  Still servicable but 
> they do take up a bit of pack room.
>
> Polypro.  Stinks but did the job.
>
> Midweight fleece.  Packs large, worked.
>
> Cargo pants.  Yes
>
> Jacket.  REI Primaloft.  Excellant.  Inside pocket kept things dry.
>
> Gloves.  Liners and insulated shell.  Wet but OK.
>
> Trekking poles.  Black Diamond w/snow baskets.  Balance, setting up 
> tarptent, probing for logs under 5' of snow on one river crossing where 
> we had to use a log jam, clearing snow from said logs.
>
> Ice axe.  Black diamond (cheap one) used for catholes, staking tent, 
> chopping wood, anchor.  Did not have to self arrest.
>
> Socks.  4 pairs wool and liners.  Do NOT use waterproof socks below 
> freezing for extended periods.
>
> Gaiters.  No differance in foot wetness with or without.
>
> Shoes.  REI Vasque Goretex low hikers.  Still wet inside and out 2 days 
> later but did not wear them today.
>
> Goretex and similar.  Works when new and clean.  Dirt cloggs pores.  Age 
> makes pores smaller due to fuzzing.  Freezing temps freeze water on the 
> outside and vapor coming out, clogging pores.  Useless!
>
> GPS.  3  Yes
>
> Cell phone.  3  Yes  Conserve battery!
>
> Map and compass.  Know how to navigate!  Take a course in celestial and 
> near coastal navigation for fun.  Tringulation is a no-brainer after 
> that.
>
> Whistle.  Get a marine whistle.  There is no pea, its light though big, 
> and blows very loud even when wet.
>
> Education.  A little gets a lot of return.
>
> Experience.  Push your limits with a group first.  'Don't dream your 
> life, live your dream.'  'The differance between an ordeal and an 
> adventure is attitude.'  Both from Bob Bitchin
>
> First aid kit.  Duct tape and a safety pin.  Extra RX's and vitiman I, 
> one use hand/foot warmers are nice.
>
> Food.  One Mountain house meal will feed 4 stranded hikers for a day in 
> survival conditions.  It supplies only 150 caleries per person in those 
> conditions when you are using thousands!  Gummy bears!  Chocolate!  
> Normal stuff.  Lots of snacks and junk food - candy, crackers.  Olive 
> oil.  Avacados, quite possibly natures most perfect food.  High in fat 
> and yummy.  Hot water made from snow is excellant, even without coffee, 
> tea, of flavoring!  Hot cidar and Gatoraide are also very good.
>
> Cigarettes.  Sealed packs get wet and are useless.  I went 3 days on 2 
> smokes!  Not pleasant.  Get a pipe for emergency backup.
>
> Lighters.  Bic, must be warm, carry in inside pocket and must be dry.  
> Carry two, one in a plastic bag.  It one gets wet, use the other to 
> light it and dry it out.
>
> Fire.  Impossible with green wet wood.  Carry an alcohol stove.
>
> TV weather forecast.  Useless!  NOAA, not much better on land or sea.
>
> 911.  Had our position in seconds.  They were 10 meters off!
>
> Sleeping pads.  All worked equily well in snow.  Some foam, some self 
> inflatables.  The orange side of the Thermorests is a good helicopter 
> attention getter.  Flip it up and down, not sideways.
>
> Good decisions come from experience.  Experience comes from bad 
> decisions.  Somebody famous said that, but I don't know who or when.
>
> Parachute cord.  We used it pull a car out of a ditch on the way in to 
> the trailhead.  Many uses.
>
> Platypus.  Drinking tube froze in the first hour.
>
> Canteen.  Gatoraide bottles.  Save one empty special one to pee in at 
> night.
>
> Hat.  Baleclavalavamama.  Yes!
>
> Sun glasses.  Yes, or RX photogrey.
>
> Snowshoes.  I will never go without them in the fall, winter, spring, or 
> alpine environments again.
>
> Packs.  To each his own.  All are fine, depends what you like.
>
> Pack cover.  None of us had one but we all had everything in tied 
> plastic bags.  Everything still got wet when in use.
>
> I think that's about it.  Happy to answer any questions.
> Beyond this point
> There be dragons...
>
> Chris ~ S/V Drifter
> Anacortes, WA. ~~~_/) ~~~
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